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If the Russian invasion of and war in Ukraine lasts a lot longer than predicted and the stalemate between Russia and the West continues, it can be expected that the climate change agenda will be forced to give way to political expediency, write Solly Moeng and Paul McIntosh.
As the leaders of the G7 countries began talks in Bavaria in the shadow of the ongoing war in Ukraine, calls have gone out for them to honour previous commitments on the winding down of the fossil fuel energy economy and the transition to renewables. However, with no end in sight to the conflict and to the embargoes on Russian petrochemical exports, how realistic are those pleas? And how critical is the situation?
G7 climate ministers already reached an agreement in principle, back in May, to end all public investment in fossil fuel projects beyond their borders by the end of 2022, and to achieve predominantly carbon free electricity production by 2035. Yet Italy and Germany, now recently joined by France, are already talking of reviving old domestic coal plants to offset the risk of rationing natural gas previously imported from Russia. Germany is also, reportedly, looking to places as far away as Senegal, in Africa, and other alternative sources, to secure its energy supply sources. In fact, anecdotal reports in the southern African coal mining sector are replete with stories of agents all over the place, looking for coal supplies for clients in Western Europe.
