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The coronavirus pandemic’s severe impact on tourism will linger, altering the way we travel and vacation.
Global travel and tourism have been decimated by restrictions imposed to halt the spread of the coronavirus, but attention is starting to turn to how and when a recovery might take place in a sector estimated to account for 200m jobs and a tenth of the world's economy.
Uncertainty prevails amid concern over whether there will be a “second wave”, or resurgence of infections in countries that have begun easing their lockdowns – a scenario the World Health Organization says is inevitable, based on the behaviour of previous pandemics.
This raises the prospect of recurring restrictions until an effective vaccine is found, and travel is the most vulnerable of any activity, especially given that it was responsible for the initial spread of the virus from its place of origin in Wuhan, China.
Opinion is divided as to whether there will be a burst of pent-up demand from people tired of being shackled to one place, or whether the practices of social distancing and risk avoidance will lead to permanent behaviour changes. For the next couple of years at least, the latter appears most likely to prevail.
Apart from being wary of getting the virus in crowded places or on airplanes, many people will be reluctant to venture far away from their homes and become separated from their loved ones, as many did when lockdowns were imposed with little warning earlier this year.
As a result, domestic tourism worldwide is likely to bounce back first, with travellers opting for quiet destinations reachable by car, and stays at private rental properties instead of crowded hotels and resorts.
“More regional, smaller and rural destinations will benefit – people will want to be away from the large numbers you see in major cities,” he added.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has been quick to calculate and regularly update its forecasts for the beleaguered industry, which it says will recover more slowly than other parts of the global economy.
It predicted in May that air travel may only recover to last year’s levels in 2023. Passenger demand is expected to fall by nearly 50% in 2020, while airline passenger revenues will plummet by $314bn. Domestic markets would open first, with an initial preference for short-haul trips, it said.
From a business travel perspective, IATA’s recovery outlook may be optimistic, as many companies will stick to remote video conferencing to save time and money, even after the pandemic is contained. The industry body estimates that SA's share of forgone flight sales could be more than R40bn.
The World Travel and Tourism Council, a private forum for the industry, calculates that the blow to the sector could cost the world economy $2.7tr in 2020, wiping out 100m jobs. The outlook in SA is no less bleak, with the country's Tourism Business Council warning that R171.4bn of tourism spending could be lost this year, and a million jobs shed.
It is urging the government to lift restrictions on international travel earlier than anticipated and to present clear plans as to when the tourism sector will be up and running, to help salvage the September to March summer season, which normally accounts for 60% of annual business.
When domestic leisure travel is permitted, there could be new opportunities for tourism in SA, as people who would have normally travelled overseas will spend their holidays in the country, said Mia Slabbert, economist at the Bureau for Economic Research, in a recent research note.
“It could also increase demand for tourism in rural areas as travellers try to avoid congested metros where social distancing is harder,” she said.
While the weaker rand would discourage South Africans from travelling overseas, it would also increase the country’s appeal as a tourist destination for overseas travellers, she added.
For those who do venture abroad, travel will become more complicated. Queues at immigration will lengthen as people are subjected to intensive pre-flight health checks, which could even include instant tests for Covid- 19 – which the airline Emirates has already introduced at its hub in Dubai.
Some form of immunity certificate may become a requirement for both outward and inward travel, which would have to be linked to an invasive ‘track and trace’ system in digital format. The WHO has cautioned against immunity passports, saying on 24 April that there was currently no evidence that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have antibodies were protected from a second infection.
Bioethicists warn that they could create two classes of citizen as tests were both limited and expensive, and pointed out that they could also provide a perverse incentive to contract the virus deliberately. Nevertheless, the idea is being floated in the US, Germany, the UK, and other countries.Travel insurance will become a must, and policies would have to include clearly defined coverage for pandemics and travel advisories.
