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Encouraging signs for Eastern Cape

Pretoria - In January growth in the Eastern Cape Sake24/BoE Private Clients’ Barometer slowed to 10.1% year-on-year (y/y) from 10.4% in December, although the agriculture, transport and manufacturing sectors continued their strong performance.

Apart from these healthy growth rates, it appeared that consumer demand would spearhead the next round of economic growth.

The consumer has eventually returned to the market, said Economists.co.za economist Mike Schüssler, who compiled the barometer.

Overall trade did well in January, rising 8.1% y/y from 6.6% in December and 4.7% in November. January retail sales were 5.3% up, followed by wholesale with 4%.

Retail prices were still stable enough to stimulate increased buying. The broader economic growth now seen is principally being driven by consumer spending.

In January the agriculture sector grew 5.6% y/y from 1.7% in December, its strongest growth since September 2009. According to Schüssler, January’s improvement in agriculture was led by meat production.

Farmers are preparing themselves for a rise in the maize price, and consequently the price of feed, by slaughtering larger parts of their herds.

Red meat slaughtering rose 24% y/y in January, compared with an overall drop in crop and fruit production.

Transport also continued on its upward path and recorded strong annual growth of 19.1%.

Ports in the province handled 26.6% more volume in January. These are big growth numbers coming from a high base the previous year.

According to Schüssler, the trend is very possibly being driven by greater demand out of Africa.

Manufacturing rose 11% y/y in January from 7.5% in December and 4.3% in November.

Growth in financial and business services tapered off somewhat in January, to an annual growth rate of 4.6% from 5.2% in December, but it was still higher than the 1.9% average in the second half of 2010.

The Eastern Cape stress index, which takes into account elements such as unemployment and inflation, contracted 2.5% y/y in January.

Apart from worrying points in Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan’s budget, the Nelson Mandela Bay Chamber of Business is optimistic about cooperation with the government in the year ahead.

The minister’s focus on job creation and support for small and medium enterprises is to be welcomed, said the chamber's CEO Kevin Hustler.

The chamber supports the R10bn industrial action plan, which includes the prioritising of the motor industry, together with assistance for the textile industry, he said.

- Sake24

For business news in Afrikaans, go to Sake24.com.

For more news on the Sake24/BoE Private Clients barometers, go to www.fin24.com/barometer.


 
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