While
the discussion about
African swine fever has largely focused on China, the likes of Vietnam
are also reeling from its effects. The Vietnamese authorities are now asking
farmers to diversify away from pork to other livestock – a difficult task, I
imagine, for a nation that is among the world’s top ten highest per
capita pork consumers.
But
there is progress in this diversification approach. I hear that Vietnamese
farmers are now switching to raise ducks, ostrich and chickens instead. This is
done the hope of finding a substitute for pork, and still providing affordable
meat to consumers.
We
are fortunate here in South Africa, as we are still in good shape, although there
were a few reports of African swine fever
cases last month.
In
short, the first reported case was on a farm in
North West earlier in April, and it affected specifically wild pigs. The
outbreak was detected early, with good response from the government veterinarians.
There
was no threat to the South African pork industry nor consumers, as is still the
case.
On
24 April 2019, the South African Pork Producers’
Organisation
reported another diagnosis on a small farm in the Delmas area of Mpumalanga.
The farm had about 180 pigs, mainly fattening pigs and a few sows bought from
an auctioneer in the area. The farm was immediately quarantined, and there was
no imminent threat to the industry, nor consumers.
The
reduced pork supplies in a number of Asian countries, however, has had a
notable impact on global meat prices.
Figure
1 below illustrates the FAO Meat Price Index, which has been on an
upward trend over the past few months.
Figure 1: Global Meat Price Index. Source:
FAO, Agbiz Research
Moreover,
given that there seems to be no end in sight to this African swine fever, my view
is that global meat prices are likely to remain at fairly high levels in the
near-to-medium term.
This
is likely to spill over somewhat to the South African meat industry,
particularly pork. Conversations I had with South African pork producers at a
conference in Pietermaritzburg in May this year echoed this.
While
SA has not faced a severe outbreak, therefore, it does not mean there has been
zero impact.
Wandile Sihlobo is a South African
agricultural economist. He is on Twitter @WandileSihlobo