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THIS week is likely to be the most dangerous few days for Cyril Ramaphosa since he became ANC president in December. And it is the showpiece State of the Nation address that will play its part as a key catalyst in the unfolding political drama.
It’s the week in which those supporting him must effectively secure an early retirement of President Jacob Zuma – or face losing the substantial momentum of hope that has been created over the last six weeks.
And while momentum can be lost - and later found - Ramaphosa’s narrow elective conference victory and the very divided Top 6 (and broader ANC) necessitate a much swifter response from the new ANC president.
The longer President Zuma survives in office, the longer it will take for the ANC’s – and South Africa’s – renewal to take root.
And time is of the essence. A surviving Jacob Zuma, giving the State of the Nation Address (SONA), enables not only himself but those closely associated with him to manoeuvre themselves into more defensive positions while conversely disempowering Ramaphosa in the process.
In addition, Zuma has now become so politically toxic that different elements within the ANC are now threatening to destabilise the organisation whether he stays or goes.
Furthermore, with the State Capture inquiry and Asset Forfeiture Unit just beginning to sniff out those linked to graft and corruption, Zuma’s elongated presidency can afford those allegedly involved the chance to hatch exit-strategy plans to their advantage.
While these are compelling reasons for decisive action on Jacob Zuma, a failure to remove him could precipitate a crisis of expectation – a disappointing show of intransigence and political inertia – that may negatively affect renewed investor optimism and broader market sentiment.
Deep psychological need
But it is the deep psychological need for Ramaphosa to be seen to be in control that is most important.
South Africa stands at a crossroads with the first very real chance in almost a decade that the decline in governance – and simultaneous economic degeneration – can be halted.
But the deep rot at almost every level requires brave leadership. It demands of a leader an unflinching commitment to uphold the values of the Constitution and also act without fear in dealing with those who have besmirched the name of the country- and the governing ANC as well.
Jacob Zuma personifies South Africa’s decline. It has happened under his watch, whether he was complicit or not.
While many South Africans might tolerate a ‘deal’ to afford him a relatively peaceful retirement, his extended stay in power would indicate that Ramaphosa’s victory is more fragile.
It would provide Ramaphosa’s political opponents with a chance to potentially regroup. It would send a message that the new leader is weak and susceptible in future to the whims of those associated with the Zuma years of decline.
Time of reckoning
And it is precisely this week in which the two alternatives will clash inside the ANC. Like the proverbial ‘Custer’s last stand’, we have now moved towards a time of reckoning.
As new leader, Ramaphosa cannot afford to show a sign of weakness or else, the deep Machiavellian power plays that make up the ANC will eat him alive in future. Signs of political softness early on in one’s tenure as party leader will only come home to haunt you in future.
The past month has seen Ramaphosa set himself up for this moment. In a remarkably swift series of moves, he has signalled – overtly or covertly – that change was needed.
With a political climate suddenly pleasing investors, a ZAR exchange rate appreciating by 20% well in excess of other emerging market currencies and a stellar Davos performance enhanced by commendable television optics on the BBC, Ramaphosa and South Africa have begun the long haul of redemption.
But convincing the outside world is the easy part. The tougher part is taking a firm grip on your own political party.
Each year, political leaders come unstuck in their own back yards - the internecine battlegrounds of personality-driven, ideologically divisive and patronage linked wars that debilitate and drain even the most talented of party heads.
Certainly, the brittleness of Ramaphosa’s victory necessitates a careful strategy. But boldness should not be subsumed in the process – especially when the outcome is to the advantage South Africa.
South Africa is about to witness the ‘Game of Thrones’ power play in its final act – and the outcome needs to offer a clear and unambiguous vision for the creation of a sustainable foundation of recovery. Thursday night will give us some clues as to the future. Let the games begin.
* Daniel Silke is director of the Political Futures Consultancy and is a noted keynote speaker and commentator. Views expressed are his own. Follow him on Twitter at @DanielSilke or visit his website.
