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Johannesburg - The political noose is now beginning to tighten around President Jacob Zuma’s neck. Multiple pressures are mounting to shorten his longevity in office as a confluence of forces mobilises to unseat him.
ANC politics is today entering a dramatic and somewhat combustible era in which a variety of interests will pitch for power and access to resources, while others will seek a broader coalition around the national interest and a possible reboot of not only ANC politics, but broader economic policy too.
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Significant developments in the last week suggest that waiting for the ANC’s elective conference at the end of next year to unseat President Zuma now seems too laborious and damaging a process.
Jackson Mthembu’s unprecedented call on the National Executive Council (NEC) to resign, leaked ANC documents expressing the same branch-level frustrations, the severe embarrassment of the Abrahams/Gordhan saga, union Nehawu's call for Zuma to go and the Nelson Mandela Foundation’s damning indictment of the president have all left the ANC reeling.
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This is not to mention the state capture legal challenges that epitomise an ethically compromised administration.
With the exception of Zuma’s closest allies, even those like Gwede Mantashe now seem reluctant to protect him. Clearly, there are important power shifts under way that could precipitate a review of ANC leadership well before the end of 2017.
With political paralysis as a result of deep factional infighting within the ANC, South Africa’s economy has also stagnated. Structural economic policy change simply cannot take place in an environment of political intrigue, infighting and jockeying for power.
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Should the country not be able to take immediate short-term pragmatic policy decisions by the budget next February, markets, rating agencies and investors will punish us severely – if they don’t do so sooner.
But President Zuma is not the only cause of this malaise. The composition of the NEC has long been the gatekeeper for the President and his modus operandi.
As Zuma has intricately linked his own longevity to patronage within the NEC, if the president has to go – then so should the NEC. After all, Mthembu and even Thabo Mbeki now acknowledge this as critical to a reboot of the governing party.
The relationship between the president and his NEC is therefore at the core of the current impasse within the ANC. Unless the majority of this body have the political courage to break with their president and call – with the backing of a majority of provincial structures - for an early national conference, the impasse will continue.
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The powerful Premier League representing the Free State, Mpumalanga and North West who have historically backed Zuma complicates the position. At this juncture it is unlikely that their respective provincial bodies would sanction a revolt against Zuma – especially with the unresolved 783 fraud charges holding back the president’s peaceful retirement from public office.
South Africa therefore is in a governance impasse. And this impasse reflects on all aspects of the state, since the conflation of party and state has been ANC policy for the last two decades. When political hacks and cronies occupy key state institutions and the broader network of state-owned enterprises, any factionalism within the ruling party gets replicated across the board.
Having said all of this, the situation is perhaps more fluid than one would imagine. The confluence of forces both within the ANC and from the private sector and civil society has opened a new discourse about change.
Increasingly, common cause both from within and outside the ANC coalescing around saving the country and promoting the national interest over narrow self-interest is gaining ground.
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And, with the ANC simply being unable to address its declining support at the polls, the internal calls for change are gaining traction. South Africa’s opposition parties smell blood and if anything should galvanise those within the ANC for leadership and policy change, it should be a real fear that this level of internal political ferment - unless resolved relatively urgently - will push the party perilously close to 50% in 2019.
The ANC at the end of 2016 is a political party only marginally in power after its 54% showing on August 3. And its inability now to rise above its factional and leadership disputes make it increasingly unable to govern with any level of efficiency or coherence.
Zuma now a political albatross
Despite being president, Zuma is increasingly stymied in any decision-making. With his opponents emboldened, he is increasingly not only a lame duck but also a political albatross around his own party’s neck. This is a stalemate the country simply cannot afford.
Economic well-being is the immediate casualty affecting all 55 million South Africans. While the ANC now painfully realises that it is no longer an immortal party of political power, it bears a direct responsibility to take the tough internal decisions needed to stem the economic rot.
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The good news is that the country’s future path is not narrowly downhill. The discourse is more robust, critical and indeed hopeful than in recent years. There are alternative political and economic trajectories for us all. And a committed society both within and outside the narrow confines of parliamentary politics is beginning to emerge.
The current paralysis is likely to give way to change – and managing that change will have its own stresses and tensions. But clearly, the current malaise needs to be broken and we are just a little closer to that day.
* Daniel Silke is director of the Political Futures Consultancy and is a noted keynote speaker and commentator. Views expressed are his own. Follow him on Twitter at @DanielSilke or visit his website.
