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PRESIDENT Jacob Zuma and Minister of Home Affairs Malusi Gigaba have recently gone out of their way to attack the West. The question is whether this is wise.
Zuma spoke to a gathering of foreign ambassadors, where he harshly criticised the West for removing Libyan dictator Muammar Ghaddafi. This, he intimated, was the reason for the huge exodus of refugees which is giving Europe such a severe headache at the moment.
Zuma had a point in criticising the West’s record in the Middle East since the beginning of the century. Looking at the military interventions in Afghanistan (which, by the way, was started by the Soviet Union in 1979), Iraq and Libya, one can safely say that these were done without sufficient knowledge of the countries involved or insight into the likely consequences.
The biggest sinners were US president George W Bush and UK prime minister Tony Blair. Like the story of Pandora, they opened a box and brought forth a host of devils, including the cruellest terrorist movement in recent history, the Islamic State (IS).
But Zuma also had his facts all mixed up. He referred especially to Libya, and it so happens that the vast majority of refugees do not come from or even via Libya, but from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. The removal of Ghaddafi had very little to do with the present crisis.
Still, be that as it may, the question is whether it is wise to bite the hand that feeds you.
According to recently issued figures, South Africa’s current account deficit in the second quarter was 3.1% of our gross domestic product. Looking at the official statistics, this is pretty much typical of our economic record during the last decade or two.
This means that South Africa’s imports are much higher than its exports. Apart from being economically unhealthy, it means that we are to a great extent dependent on the outside world.
A typical example of this was the submission of the American Chamber of Commerce in South Africa during the recent public hearings on the Promotion and Protection of Investment Bill. Executive director Carol O’Brien told MPs this bill requires international security companies to transfer 51% of their shares to South Africans.
O’Brien drew attention to the fact that investments worth a full R1.35trn were waiting to be transferred to South Africa, but that this bill, together with other measures, has caused international investor confidence in the country to sink to an all-time low.
The first expropriation will result in a flight of investment out of South Africa. In fact, the process has already started, as four companies have transferred their money to other emerging markets, according to O’Brien.
One has to see it from the potential investor’s perspective. Let us assume, dear reader, that you are a millionaire with – say – R100m burning in your back pocket, and that you want to put it to work to make a handsome profit. You are looking at various alternatives to build a factory.
Shall I go to Nigeria? Yes, cheap labour. No, too much corruption eating away my profits.
To Russia? Lots of opportunities there. But no, I do not have connections to the mafia surrounding Vladimir Putin.
South Africa? Let’s see … No, rather not, socialist-leaning government, too much greasing of palms, labour market too rigid. Stay away.
Singapore? Yup, sounds much better. Not very corrupt, laws making it relatively easy to invest. Yes, let’s go there.
See what I mean? The point is, we South Africans sometimes believe the world owes us. After all, aren’t we Nelson Mandela’s gift to the world?
SA's golden moment of glory long gone
Alas, no, our golden moment of glory has long gone. Nowadays the South African miracle of 1994 and Madiba’s smile are but a distant memory. If the international media now mentions our country, it is in passing, and then in the context of Zuma wriggling out of court indictment, corruption, government mismanagement, crime, Marikana, Juju’s intemperate outbursts, etc.
The world will not come to us because we are so fantastic. Capital, it is sometimes said, is a coward; it will rather run away from danger to safe havens.
In other words, we will ourselves have to woo foreign capital to be invested within our borders, instead of in Singapore. And we will not succeed when the president tells the Western countries, flush with investment money, how they are a bunch of dastardly people.
Okay, their reaction will likely be: thanks for enlightening us. Goodbye! And we will not see them again anytime soon.
And who will pay the price? Right – the poor, unemployed South Africans in the townships. Those without hope. Those whose only recourse is either to beg or commit crime in order to survive.
Not that our Number One is overly touched by this. He has given vent to his anti-Western feelings, which makes him feel good (wow, have I really told them off!)
And, of course, then he retires to his sumptuous official residences Genadendal or Mahlamba Ndlopfu. And when he tires of those, he gets into his personal Boeing 737 and is whisked away to Nkandla, which was paid for by you and me.
Not a care in the world.
* Leopold Scholtz is an independent political analyst who lives in Europe. Views expressed are his own.
