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Africa braces for population explosion

“DEMOGRAPHY is destiny.” This is the famous quote attributed to 19th-century French sociologist Auguste Comte (1798-1857).

Comte wrote about demography at a time when the alarmist views of English scholar Thomas Robert Malthus were widely debated. Malthus was of the view that the world population multiplied too quickly, and that this growth would, in time, outstrip the planet’s capacity to feed the teeming millions.

History since then has proven Malthus wrong, while Comte’s emphasis on demography as a trigger for world history is also still hotly debated among academics.

No doubt the latest figures released by the United Nations will fuel the debate once more, not least in Europe. The figures are also of major importance for South Africa’s future.

According to a recent report published by the UN’s Population Division, entitled “World Population Prospects, the 2015 revision”, the world population is growing faster than previously expected. The total of 7 349 billion people now living on the face of the planet, it is said, will increase to a frightening 11 213 billion by the end of the century.

That said, the good news is that population growth is slowing down, albeit marginally. Ten years ago, the report states, world population was growing by 1.24% per year; today the figure is 1.18% – still an additional 83 million people annually.

However, the bad news is that this growth is concentrated in certain relatively backward spots where it can least be absorbed. Africa is particularly afflicted.

The continent's population is presently growing by 2.55% per year. “Consequently,” the report states, “of the additional 2.4 billion people projected to be added to the global population between 2015 and 2050, 1.3 billion will be added in Africa.” The increase in Asia will be 0.9 billion, while other parts of the world will be far less affected.

To make matters worse, Africa is expected to be the only part of the world experiencing substantial population growth after 2050.

A youthful continent

Part of the explanation is to be found in the age composition of Africans. More than half of all Africans are at present below 25 years of age, and about 40% are even below 15 years.

This means that a momentum has gathered which will engulf the continent in years to come, even if the fertility rate declines as expected. The UN report’s forecast on Africa is based on the assumption that women will give birth to fewer children – down from the present 4.3 per woman to 2.0 in 2100.

The report mentions the names of several African countries where the population is projected to increase at least fivefold by 2100: Angola, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Niger, Somalia, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia. In the dry language of the report, an explosive future is explained:

“The concentration of population growth in the poorest countries will make it harder for those governments to eradicate poverty and inequality, combat hunger and malnutrition, expand education enrolment and health systems, improve the provision of basic services and implement other elements of a sustainable development agenda to ensure that no-one is left behind.”

Getting old and dying out

On the other hand, Europe’s highly developed population in particular is rapidly getting old and dying out. The UN report was followed up by a report in the German daily Die Welt, which stated that the fertility rate in that country was now at an all-time low – 1.39 children per woman. This means that Germany’s population will decrease from the present 80 million to 75 million by 2050, and that Europe's population will contract from 650 million to 540 million by 2050.

These projections have alarming prospects for world politics. It means that the huge differences in wealth between the rich First World and the poor Third World, especially in Africa, will only increase.

And that has other implications. Right now, Europe is staggering under a flood of refugees streaming across the Mediterranean towards the shores of Spain, Italy and Greece. Many of these people spill over the southernmost European countries northwards, and thousands are intent on making it to Britain, which for some reason is viewed as paradise on earth.

In fact, the problem at Calais, where thousands of refugees often intimidate lorry drivers to let them hide in their trucks crossing the English Channel in ferries or through the tunnel underneath the Channel, is very nearly out of control. British Prime Minister David Cameron was recently forced to announce joint measures with France to address this issue.

European Union leaders have also decided on military steps. Warships will be used to sink boats people smugglers use to move refugees in perilous journeys across the seas before they can be used for this purpose.

Nevertheless, the UN figures show that stopping the flood is more or less akin to sweeping back the sea with an ordinary broom. And these millions are also heading for South Africa, where xenophobia has already reared its ugly head on more than one occasion.

It is clear that considerable trouble lies ahead.

* Leopold Scholtz is an independent political analyst who lives in Europe. Views expressed are his own.

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