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IPP entrepreneur slams nuclear plans

Cape Town - Fin24 user Sterrenberg Bester says the nuclear build programme may bring jobs to the Port Elizabeth region but will be suicidal to the SA economy.

READ: Fin24 readers speak out against nuclear energy

READ: Nuclear adviser responds to his critics

Bester sent Fin24 an open letter to Dr Kelvin Kemm following an opinion story by Kemm, who is a member of the ministerial Advisory Council on Energy.

Bester, an independent power producer entrepreneur, writes:

South Africa has a “peaker plant” (18:00 to 21:00) usage profile challenge, and not a “base load” problem.

We are confident that the scientific community and the SA citizens will not agree with all that Dr Kemm is suggesting.

Fukushima was a tragedy of massive human, animal and property devastation, which cannot be described as a “zero effect” outcome by any research paper or expert.

Google the topic to get the real picture and human cost in evacuating the site.

The South African scenario could be similar or worse with an earthquake fault near Port Elizabeth.

However, the more likely threat to our SA civilisation is the financial cost and the opportunity cost in making the wrong decision to go nuclear (lifecycle of nuclear is around 50 to 60 years).

Dr Kemm, can you share the turnkey cost of the nuclear rollout and how the R/kWh cost of nuclear electricity will be incorporated into Eskom’s tariff structure?

Eskom is already applying for a 17% tariff increase in early 2016.  

When the National Energy Regulator of SA allows the RCA (claw back for 2013/14) application, then the average R/kWh tariff will be around R1.06 in 2016.

The next increase (RCA 2014/15) will be the final shocker to the public and we are anticipating a total collapse of Eskom’s customer base around June 2017.  

We are expecting Medupi and Kusile's tariff to be around R1.36 and R1.5/kWh.
 
The tariff of the Thyspunt nuclear power plant could be much more due to the massive capital layout and borrowing of money under the current credit rating and local economic conditions.

The project may bring jobs to Port Elizabeth region, but will be suicidal to the SA economy (taxpayers, electricity users).

How will Eskom or the government incorporate the nuclear plan when the current electricity scenario (Eskom’s negative state of affairs) is unsustainable?

What we understand from the secret deals with Russia and China is that both countries will give very favourable terms under a “build, own and operating licence”.

A build, own and operate licence will give Russia (China) a long-term stronghold on the SA economy and will keep the SA taxpayer hostage for the life cycle of the plants.

The worrying factor with regard to government’s decision is that all other electricity opportunities will fall on the back burner by the magnitude of the nuclear transaction and the long-term degrading effect on the economy (capturing all available funding).

Vattenfall (and other German utilities) have all abandoned their nuclear plants (Bundestag government decision in 2011 to dismantle all nuclear plants by 2022) and therefore need to acquire (urgently) alternative base load energy in the form of coal plants. (Germany has half the solar photovoltaic resources compared to South Africa).

In March 2015, an opinion poll showed that a large majority (81%) of the German population are still in favour of the government’s decision to exit nuclear power.

Only 16% of those questioned by polling firm Emnid believed the phase-out was wrong. Approval rates were highest among the young and citizens from the west of Germany.

The issue of nuclear waste material is also a great concern and a decision the people of South Africa should have a say in.

Don’t forget the hidden cost (huge) of dismantling nuclear plants after 50+ years.

Wind and solar PV technologies are a huge success story in South Africa and could eventually produce 40+GW (rooftop solar PV estimated at 22GW) with new storage technologies and electric vehicles (EV2Grid) connected to a smart national electricity network of the future.

Eskom should concentrate on building and maintaining a super and smart grid that can accommodate distributed generation - including utility scale projects and rooftop solar PV - on a massive scale.

Let the private sector (independent power producers) produce the energy of tomorrow (sustainable and affordable) to a willing buyer and willing seller SA market.

Maybe SA needs a referendum on not only “ZumaMustFall#” but also “NuclearMustFall#” and “EskomMustTransform#” once and for all to give the next generation a chance to create a better future for all.

* Dr Kemm has been sent the open letter and will respond in due course.

Disclaimer: All articles and letters published on Fin24 have been independently written by members of the Fin24 community. The views of users published on Fin24 are therefore their own and do not necessarily represent those of Fin24.

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