TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Possible emerging market rally good news for JSE | Fin24
  • Labour trends

    Here's where you're most likely to find a job.

  • High returns

    SA's dagga belt could bring high returns for horticulture, says Wandile Sihlobo.

  • State capture

    8 things to know about Gordhan's first day at the state capture inquiry.


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Possible emerging market rally good news for JSE

Oct 30 2018 14:34
Colin Abrams

The fortunes of the JSE are very much tied to that of emerging markets in general. The MSCI Emerging Markets index [JSE:EEM] is the main emerging markets index. It has now reached an important support level.

MSCI emerging markets index – Testing support

Current Trend: Down on all main timeframes but oversold.
Strategy: Wait for a weekly close above line 2 to buy. (More aggressive players buy off line 1).

Chart Setup: The Emerging Markets index has now reached its minimum downside target from a head and shoulders pattern (labelled s-h-s) from early 2018.

• Importantly, it has also reached line 1 support at 38.20. (The EEM was trading at 38.44 at the time of writing).

• Therefore, for the first time in many months we may be near the low of this downtrend. (The JSE has been tracking this index all year, and won’t rally in earnest until it breaks out above line 2).

• In addition, its weekly Stochastic (on top) is giving a bullish divergence (i.e. its not making a new low) from its oversold level, warning of a large rally to come.



Strategy Details: Monitor this index closely for a weekly (i.e. Friday) close above line 2 to trigger the buy. That will be a buy for emerging markets in general and the JSE. Or, one can trade the EEM directly on the NYSE, or locally via the SatrixEMG EFT.  (Line 2 is at 42.45 next week and declining by 20c per week thereafter i.e. to 42.25 etc.).

Target: For now, we need line 1 (38.20) to hold. However, a weekly close below line 1 will be further bearish for it, and the JSE. The next support if line 1 breaks, is 36.90. But for an upside breakout of line 2, it will target 45.00-46.70.

Stop-loss: A daily close below the low of this large correction (once the buy signal has triggered).

  • Colin Abrams is an independent technical analyst. To subscribe to more recommendations by the author, or attend trading courses, please go to

Disclaimer: Fin24 cannot be held liable for any investment decisions made based on the advice given by independent financial service providers. Under the ECT Act and to the fullest extent possible under the applicable law, Fin24 disclaims all responsibility or liability for any damages whatsoever resulting from the use of this site in any manner.

* Sign up to Fin24's top news in your inbox: SUBSCRIBE TO FIN24 NEWSLETTER

Follow Fin24 on Twitter and Facebook. encourages commentary submitted via MyNews24. Contributions of 200 words or more will be considered for publication.

equities  |  markets


Company Snapshot

Money Clinic

Money Clinic
Do you have a question about your finances? We'll get an expert opinion.
Click here...

Voting Booth

Was Momentum fair when rejecting R2.4m insurance claim?

Previous results · Suggest a vote