Rand yo-yos in early trade as emerging markets on the back foot | Fin24
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Rand yo-yos in early trade as emerging markets on the back foot

Sep 17 2018 10:58

The rand had a yo-yo session in early trade on Monday morning, briefly breaking through R15/$ shortly after 09:00.

But by 10:20, it had firmed somewhat at R14.96 to the greenback.

Senior Dealer at TreasuryONE, Andre Botha, said emerging markets were on the back foot, with Turkey down 2%.

"We are also on the back foot, with the market concerned with trade fears, and that the US will implement further trade tariffs against China this week," he said.

Botha said in terms of South Africa, he expected the rand to follow the same stream as other emerging markets.

"A test of R15.00 is on the cards as we see the rand losing a little ground today. Looking ahead to this week we have inflation data out later this week, followed by the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) interest rate decision the day after. We expect the MPC to hold interest rates but with a hawkish tone of future rates hikes to come."

Analysts from NKC Economics expect the rand to trade within range of R14.70/$ to R15/$ on Monday. Sharing views on the MPC meeting this week, NKC noted that the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) would have to consider the impact of the recent rand weakness and fuel hike on inflation, when making a decision on rates.

Bianca Botes, corporate treasury manager at Peregrine Treasury Solutions, is also of the view that markets will be gearing up for both the European Central Bank and SARB monetary committee meetings this week, and the subsequent interest rate announcements.

"Key here will once again be the tone set by both central banks. Local CPI data due on Wednesday is likely to drive sentiment at the SARB meeting, although no rate hike is currently expected," she said. 

The rates announcement is expected on Thursday.

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