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History suggests rebound for the rand after awful August

Aug 31 2019 11:55
Robert Brand, Bloomberg

It's been a bad August for the rand - but the currency is due for a respite in September, if history is anything to go by.

The rand slumped about 6% against the dollar in the past month, the most in a year.

This was as the escalating US-China trade war weighed on emerging-market assets. At the same time, Eskom's troubles made investors wary about South Africa's fiscal outlook.

An August slump is not unusual for the rand. It has declined against the dollar in eight out of the past 10 years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

But in six of those eight years, the currency rebounded in September - including last year, when it posted a 3.7% gain.

With much bad news already priced in and emerging markets appearing to be stabilising after a tumultuous August, that pattern may well repeat itself this year.

eskom  |  donald trump  |  markets  |  rand  |  trade war  |  currencies


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