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Cape Town – Analysts said news that the Gupta family might have left South Africa for good following their resignation from their holding company Oakbay Investments on Friday did not dent the rand, which was trading 1.5% firmer at R14.92 to the dollar on Monday morning.
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Whether the Gupta family has left South Africa permanently “might have political ramifications, but direct currency implications are limited because of exchange controls”, John Cairns, an analyst at Rand Merchant Bank, said in a note on Monday.
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Treasury’s $1.25bn bond auction “went as well as could be expected given the current situation and news of the Guptas resigning as directors of Oakbay may have helped, although they still own a majority of the company”, Adam Phillips of Umkhulu Consulting said on Monday.
“The weekend papers have kept the heat on Zuma and there was also news that the Guptas left for Dubai with a serious amount of luggage.”
Regarding the new bond issuance, Cairns said the “good bidding and decent price shows ongoing confidence towards the country, despite a looming rating downgrade.
“Note, however, that the cash will probably not impact the rand market: Treasury needs the dollars for future debt repayments and will presumably just park the proceeds at the SA Reserve Bank.”
Phillips said the rand “is just following other emerging market currencies overnight, as commodities move ahead and Brent crude is back above $40.00”.
Phillips said interest this week will be in local retail sales stats to see if rate hikes have curbed consumers from buying.
He said the rand will remain in a range between R14.75/$ to R15.25/$ this week. “The rand could strengthen slowly, but won't be a focus of international operators,” he said. “They will be keen on the Far East and the Russian rouble, while the rand plays second fiddle.”
NKC Research said “US inflation data and domestic politics will likely be major rand triggers this week, with the SA currency expected to oscillate around R15/$ for most of week.”
Cairns said the R5.6bn Associated British Foods-Illovo takeover offer is “certainly a positive” for the rand.
He said the dollar is again under pressure, partly spurred by talk that G20 finance ministers reached a “dollar accord” at their meeting six weeks ago.
“This is almost certainly false, but the market is happy to play the game that the strong dollar is a global problem and needs to weaken,” he said.
Cairns said the event of the week is Sunday’s meeting of oil producers.
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