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Oil resurrection sets stage for another OPEC-stale clash in 2018

Dec 29 2017 07:53

 Seoul - Oil’s revival from the biggest crash in a generation persisted, with prices set for a second annual gain after weathering everything from hurricanes and Middle East conflict to the tussle between the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and US shale.

Benchmark futures are up more than 11% in 2017, after going into a bull market in September. While gains were driven by glut-shrinking output cuts by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as well as pipeline disruptions from the North Sea to Canada and Libya have also helped. In 2018, investors will watch if US output undermines Opec’s curbs.

Speculation is rising that American drillers will put more rigs to work as oil strengthens, with shale growth driving forecasts of record US supply in 2018. That could act counter to plans by producers including Saudi Arabia, who have pledged to extend production curbs through end-2018 to wipe out a global glut.

After Hurricane Harvey shut Gulf Coast refiners at the end of August and hurt prices, violence in Iraq and a pipe crack in the UK have helped buoy crude.

"The key driver for the oil market this year has been that the Opec and Russian production cuts were introduced, complied with and extended," said Ric Spooner, a Sydney-based analyst at CMC Markets.

"This has allowed the market to reduce inventory despite production increases in the US, Libya and Nigeria."

West Texas Intermediate for February delivery was at $60.26 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 42 cents, at 1:45pm in Seoul.

Total volume traded was about 66% above the 100-day average. Front-month prices are 12% higher this year, after rising 45% - the most since 2009 - in 2016.

Brent for March settlement added 42 cents to $66.58 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The February contract expired Thursday, after rising 28 cents to $66.72.

The benchmark for more than half the world’s oil has gained 17% this year, after climbing 52% in 2016. It was at a premium of $6.31 to March WTI.

Oil’s trading at the highest level since mid-2015 after WTI breached above $60 a barrel for the first time in more than two years. The benchmark traded at an average price of about $51 this year.

Nationwide stockpiles fell 4.6 million barrels last week to the lowest level since October 2015, according to the Energy Information Administration Thursday. That beat the 3.75 million average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts.

"The tug-of-war between Opec and the US will continue to pressure oil from trading above $60 a barrel in 2018," said Kim Kwangrae, a Seoul-based commodities analyst at Samsung Futures.

"Like we’ve seen this year, geopolitical risks will be the key factor going forward for oil to breach $60."

Following an explosion on Tuesday, Waha Oil is working to repair the pipeline that carries crude to Libya’s Es Sider port, the North African nation’s biggest export terminal, while a major UK North Sea pipeline is nearing a return to full service after an outage this month.

Oil-market news:

Jobs are returning to the shale patch, albeit at a more subdued pace compared with the go-go days of 2014. The Trump administration is rolling back offshore drilling rules put in place after the 2010 Deep water Horizon disaster killed 11 workers and spewed millions of barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico.

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opec  |  commodities  |  markets  |  oil
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