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Oil prices surge after Trump dumps Iran deal

May 10 2018 09:15

New York - Oil prices surged on Wednesday to levels not seen in over three years after President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal, resulting in renewed sanctions on the Islamic Republic's crude exports.

The main crude futures contracts had already been rising in recent weeks, hitting 3.5-year highs, on expectations Trump was going to withdraw from the 2015 pact that had opened up Tehran's atomic programme to inspection in return for an easing of sanctions.

On Wednesday, the contracts each gained around 3%.

"The geopolitical repercussions of this decision will no doubt be widely felt, and due to as many as one million barrels of crude supply per day being effectively taken off the market," said David Cheetham, chief market analyst at traders XTB.

Thomas Pugh, commodities economist at Capital Economics, said Trump's decision alone was unlikely to have a major impact on the world's oil supply.

"However, geopolitical tensions have intensified and if Iran decides to pull out of the nuclear deal, the impact on oil supply could be more severe," he said, predicting oil prices probably would "remain elevated for the next few months at least".

A surprise fall in last week's oil stocks in the US, reported on Wednesday, added to upward pressure on oil contracts. Analysts had expected crude inventories to show an increase.

"Traders believe the sanctions will further tighten global supply at a time when some of the world's largest producers have already significantly reduced inventories," said Craig Erlam, an analyst with OANDA.

The oil surge in turn helped lift share prices in energy majors, with Royal Dutch Shell and BP higher in London and ExxonMobil and Chevron gaining in the US.

Up to $80?

Wall Street rose as banking shares and some technology giants such as Google-parent Alphabet posted solid gains in addition to petroleum-linked shares.

Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, meanwhile said it will take all necessary measures to prevent supply shortages.

Trump reinstated US sanctions which could curtail Iran's ability to export oil, its mainstay for public revenues.

In an initial reaction to Trump's announcement on Tuesday Brent and WTI eased back, with some commentators suggesting he could still pedal back on some of his rhetoric and shift to a more diplomatic tone.

But when that did not happen they bounced back strongly.

There is now talk that crude could rise to $80 a barrel, with gains helped also by uncertainty in oil-rich Venezuela, an OPEC-Russia output cap, improving global demand and a drop in US energy stockpiles.

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commodities  |  markets  |  oil
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