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Two political titans – likely deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa and outgoing African Union (AU) chairperson Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma – will battle it out for the leadership of the ruling ANC in 2017. Both are political heavyweights with largely impeccable credentials, though neither is beyond reproach.
Ramaphosa’s CV includes his role as the founding general secretary of the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), and lead negotiator of the ANC during the Convention for a Democratic South Africa (Codesa).
Dlamini-Zuma has served as health, foreign affairs and home affairs minister respectively from 1994 to 2012, before being elected as chair of the AU. Dlamini-Zuma, a paediatrician by training, has four children with President Jacob Zuma, whom she divorced in 1998.
Both candidates have their flaws, however.
Critics of Dlamini-Zuma’s tenure at the AU have pointed out that she didn’t have a clear strategic vision for the institution, failed to reform its bureaucracy and finances, and that the AU’s track record on peacekeeping and governance was patchy at best under her watch.
However, it is the Sarafina II scandal from the 1990s that should be cause for concern.
Writing in a recent column in Business Day, Gareth van Onselen described Sarafina II and Dlamini-Zuma’s role as “arguably the new South Africa’s defining corruption scandal”.
In short, Dlamini-Zuma, as health minister, awarded a R14.27m contract in a murky tender process for Sarafina II, a musical aimed at raising awareness of HIV/Aids.
As Van Onselen reminds us, this was an immense amount of money in 1995, at the time equivalent to a fifth of the health department’s Aids budget.
A Public Protector investigation found Dlamini-Zuma misled Parliament and the public on the matter (notably on the source of funding, which she said came from the EU, something the EU denied). There were no consequences for Dlamini-Zuma for her misuse of public funds.
Ramaphosa’s major Achilles’ heel is the role he played during the violent strike at Lonmin’s Marikana mine in 2012.
As a shareholder and director, Ramaphosa used his political connections to demand “concomitant” action be taken against Marikana’s striking miners, whom he viewed largely as criminals.
He also apologised after it came to light he had (unsuccessfully) bid up to R19.5m for a buffalo cow and her calf in the wake of the massacre, while Marikana miners were living in shacks in Nkaneng township.
Despite the Marikana issue, the NUM is supporting Ramaphosa for the presidency; so has the SACP. Under normal circumstances, Ramaphosa would be better poised to take over from Zuma as he is currently the country’s second in command. Traditionally, the ANC has always insisted that a deputy president should succeed the incumbent president when his term ends.
But as things stand now, this appears unlikely. Zuma himself has hinted that SA is ready for a female president. So far, the Premier League (as the alliance between the premiers of Mpumalanga, North West and Free State is known) stands firmly behind Zuma and his former wife. The Women’s League and the ANC Youth League are also behind the president and Dlamini-Zuma.
In addition, Zuma is not trusting of Ramaphosa. There is a belief that, once in power, Ramaphosa may make Zuma face the music for his scandals. Thus, the plan is to elect Dlamini-Zuma and possibly retain Jacob Zuma as the ANC president. While the country’s constitution does not allow for a third term, the ANC is silent on the matter.
However, the ANC has previously dismissed any suggestion that the party president should be a different person from the country’s president, citing what they termed would constitute “two centres of power”.
Another possible hurdle for Dlamini-Zuma, who seems to be the front-runner, is the highly fractured nature of the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal, her home province. Infighting between those who won in the last party provincial conference and those who lost has already led to the recall of the province’s premier, as well as four other members of the executive council.
The divisions in the alliance between the left as represented by the unions and the SACP, and the ANC are also widening in the province, as it is elsewhere in the country.
The body politic is gradually being engulfed by tribal undertones, with Ramaphosa’s supporters in the NUM shouting “100% Venda boy”, and some loud political whispers in the corridors of power hitting back with “100% Zulu girl” in reference to Dlamini-Zuma.
The reality is, whatever happens, it will be Ramaphosa or Dlamini-Zuma who will emerge as king or queen. Regardless of who wins, SA will still be lacking good leadership. While both are highly experienced politicians, they will still be the puppets of whoever catapulted them to power.
Lesiba Seshoka served as spokesperson of the National Union of Mineworkers for seven years. He currently works as executive director: corporate relations at the University of KwaZulu-Natal. He writes in his personal capacity.
This article originally appeared in the 21 July edition of finweek. Buy and download the magazine here.
