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Jacob Zuma may not be well educated, but he is a shrewd political strategist who is adept at keeping his cards close to his chest, only to spring a surprise when his foes least expect it.
But in the face of widespread political condemnation across the broad spectrum of the civil society following the damning Constitutional Court judgment against him on 31 March, Zuma let one of his trump cards slip.
He had not planned to show this card in 2016 yet, but he is now playing it in slow motion ahead of the ruling ANC’s national elective conference late next year. The conference will decide who rules the party from 2017 to 2022, as well as the control of state power and the patronage trappings that come with it.
Zuma’s trump card is this: he wants to cling to power for the foreseeable future, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise if he puts his hand up for a third term as ANC president.
His blatant and unashamed downplaying of the unanimous ruling by the Constitutional Court suggests that he is power hungry. An unfazed Zuma appeared on national television on 1 April, apologising “unreservedly” for his mistake and promising to repay the non-security upgrades at Nkandla, where the state has spent R247m. The ANC accepted its wayward leader’s apology and pledged its unshaken support for him.
Opposition parties will try to impeach Zuma in Parliament, but will not have the numbers to succeed. It is clear that the enemies of the president inside and outside the ANC do not have enough firepower to dislodge him from his seat of power at the Union Buildings. Zuma is going nowhere, at least not until the ANC’s elective conference takes place.
So why will Zuma run for a third term instead of retiring quietly to his Nkandla homestead? Firstly, his predecessor Thabo Mbeki ran for the third term in Polokwane in 2007, but lost to Zuma. If Mbeki did it, why can’t Zuma do it? After all, the ANC constitution does not place presidential term limits on its leaders.
Secondly, the source of the ANC’s state power is the presidential seat in Luthuli House, not the seat in the Union Buildings. Both seats are currently occupied by Zuma, but post-2017 they could be occupied by two different individuals. When Zuma took leadership of the ANC in 2007, he used his power in Luthuli House to recall Mbeki as the country’s president.
We could potentially see a scenario where Zuma (assuming he goes for a third term and wins) sends his deputy to the Union Buildings, but pulls the strings from Luthuli House.
The question is: who will be Zuma’s presidential puppet? Maybe his ex-wife, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma – who is currently serving out her term as the chairperson of the African Union Commission – will play the role of dancing to the tune of her ex-husband. In this scenario, Zuma can also use his control of the ANC to foil attempts by the DA to bring back the corruption charges that sank Schabir Shaik, his ex-financial adviser who served jail time. The related corruption charges against Zuma that were dropped in 2009 could be reinstated if DA prevails in its legal bid to have them brought back.
Thirdly, and most importantly, state power is not only just about governing – it is also about dispensing patronage. The biggest and most lucrative tender in SA’s history – the nuclear tender that will cost an estimated R1tr – is on our doorstep and Zuma will not let it slip through his fingers without having a say on how it is carved up.
Zuma already wields enormous power in SA’s minerals energy complex as chairman of the Cabinet Energy Security sub-committee, which is responsible for overseeing the development of the country’s energy mix including coal, nuclear, shale gas and renewable energy.
It has been speculated that Zuma fired finance minister Nhlanhla Nene to clear the road for the nuclear tender to move to procurement stage from pre-procurement phase – where it was bogged down for a while because of Nene’s opposition to the project on concerns it was unaffordable.
There are reports that the government is close to issuing a request for proposals (RFPs) for the fleet of nuclear power plants. Responses to the RFPs will provide a clue as to how much the programme will cost and how it could be possibly funded.
If executed, the nuclear tender will create the country’s next generation of billionaires and multi-millionaires. BEE oligarchs inside the ANC will jostle for pieces of this contract, including the Gupta family, which has close business ties with Zuma’s son Duduzane.
* Andile Ntingi is CEO and co-founder of GetBiz, an e-procurement and tender notification service.
This is an original article that originally appeared in the 14 April 2016 edition of finweek. Buy and download the magazine here.
