Heading for murky waters

South Africa may be out of the woods this year, as refreshed climate models predict a summer of normal or even above-average rainfall, which should help replenish dams and provide some relief to struggling farmers. But the country’s problems with drought and scarce water resources are far from over. 

It will probably take three years to replenish its main dams and the steady progression of climate change means that in the years ahead, South Africa and neighbouring countries in the region will continue to experience higher temperatures, drought and erratic rainfall – possibly even floods.

The trend will put an ever-increasing strain on the country’s crumbling water infrastructure, which as the population grows is likely to put South Africa in a similar predicament as it was a few years ago when delays in the construction of the Medupi and Kusile power stations led to crippling electricity shortages.

Already in deficit

According to a paper published by the Institute for Security Studies in March, national water withdrawals already exceeded reliable supply and even with all the large scale interventions planned by the department of water and sanitation (DWS), rising demand from municipalities, industry and agriculture would keep this the case until 2035.

The challenge is compounded by the fact that municipalities are losing at least a quarter of the water they should be able to provide through leaking pipes, while a further 10% is unaccounted for – meaning that a significant chunk of revenue which water boards need to deliver is being lost.

At the same time, sewerage and water treatment plants have deteriorated so much that the quality of SA’s drinking water is declining while rivers are being polluted, posing a threat to the poor communities who live on their banks. 

The latest Blue Drop report published by the DWS last year showed that the quality of the country’s drinking water dropped by eight percentage points between 2012 and 2014 – the first fall since the monitoring system was put into place in 2008. The new overall score was still high at 79.6% but in some rural areas it was a shocking 9% – well below the safety standard of 50%. 

Water service delivery also appears to be worsening – according to the General Household Survey released by Statistics SA this year, the ratio of households which described this as “good” fell from 76.4% in 2005 to 62% in 2015, while the ratio for those which perceive it as “poor” jumped from 7.8% to 12.5%. 

Irregular spending on water infrastructure

To make matters worse, the Auditor-General’s report in November showed that even though it had a clean audit, irregular spending by the DWS soared by 300% to R1.7bn in the financial year which ended March 2016, mainly due to correct procedures not being followed when projects were allocated to external agencies.

DWS minister Nomvula Mokonyane has acknowledged the problem and in October set up a task team to review procurement processes in the department and report back within six months, while providing preliminary reports that may warrant action even before that time. But some experts believe the process is compromised.  

“We are in an area where water has to be carefully managed – rainfall is variable and area specific,” says Mike Muller, former director-general at the water department and current visiting adjunct professor at the Wits School of Governance. 

“When decisions are taken for the wrong rather than the right reasons, we end up in difficulty. That’s what is happening at the moment and the wrong priorities are contributing to current problems as well as putting us at risk in the long term. 

“We have already created robust risk of being extremely short of water in 2020 if there is even a mild drought.” The second stage of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project, a series of dams, hydropower stations and tunnels between SA and Lesotho, is already running five years late and contracts for the design of its tunnel and dam will not be awarded until next year.

‘Induced’ water scarcity 

Anthony Turton, who does research at the South African Institute of Race Relations, says that in his opinion, what the country is experiencing is mainly “induced” water scarcity. Much of the water in the system is unfit for purpose and the cost of making it fit for purpose is so high it was becoming prohibitive, he maintains.

“I think induced scarcity is far more problematic as it hastens our journey to a very unpleasant outcome. It is putting us on a fast track to a bad destination,” he warns.

In a recent paper titled Water Pollution and South Africa’s Poor Turton writes that about a quarter of SA’s 1 085 water treatment plants are in poor condition and unable to deliver safe drinking water. In addition, only 16% of the total volume of sewage processed by water treatment plants is treated to a standard safe for discharge back into rivers and dams. 

“The rest, the staggering sum of 4.3bn litres daily, is discharged untreated or at best, partially treated,” he says. Turton concludes the country’s poor are at greatest risk, most notably from food grown on the banks of contaminated rivers. He also cited the growing probability of drug-resistant pathogens mutating in sewage-contaminated rivers and dams also entering the food chain.

Drought relief funding falls short

Official DWS estimates indicate that more than R80bn a year is needed over the next decade to overcome the maintenance backlog in water infrastructure, but allocations in the Treasury’s already stretched budget generally fall short.

Christo van der Rheede, Agri SA’s deputy executive director, has similar concerns for the agricultural sector, which employs around 850 000 people and provides R277bn per year to GDP. Agricultural output has contracted since the start of 2015 in the grip of two seasons of the country’s worst drought in more than three decades.

The entire R16m worth of contributions to Agri SA’s Drought Fund had been spent, and although the farming community’s woes were not yet over, donors thought that as it was raining, there was less justification of funding, Van der Rheede said.

“The situation is quite dire. We are thankful for the rain which has fallen but farmers have huge cash flow problems and are struggling to get loans,” he said. Another challenge was that government had to follow its processes with the money it allocates for drought relief, which led to exploitation as prices were pushed up, he added.

South African consumers are feeling the pinch directly through their pockets – in October, food prices rose by 12% year-on-year and analysts believe they will climb further before improved crop yields provide relief.

This is a shortened version of a story that originally appeared in the 1 December edition of finweek. Buy and download the magazine here.