This article originally appeared in the 31 December 2015 edition of finweek magazine.
There’s no doubt that property tycoon Donald Trump has added some fizz to the normally dour US presidential race, but can he actually win it?
He’s slayed some sacred cows by repeatedly insulting reporters who disagree with him, by calling for a ban on Muslim immigration and telling the Jewish lobby that he cannot be bought. That’s a deep gash to the body politic but each time his opponents call for him to repent, he doubles down, and his ratings go up.
Trump is tapping into a brooding vein of discontent on the Republican right. The establishment would like to see a Jeb Bush versus Hillary Clinton showdown, but there is a sense that these two families have ruled the empire for too long and it is time for a change. Jeb Bush’s campaign has flopped in recent weeks, as has his fundraising drive, and pundits are already writing him off.
Ben Carson has an inspiring rags-to-neurosurgeon story that appeals to many Republicans, so he is in with a chance, as is Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard – who has impressed during the Republican TV debates – though her stock has faded of late. Those who think Trump or Carson cannot win the Republican Party nomination are placing their bets on Marco Rubio, a former speaker of the Florida House and a second-generation Cuban-American.
President Obama’s ratings are in the sewer, and that makes him a lame duck president for the next 11 months until the elections take place.
On the Democratic side of the isle, there seems to be just one front-runner – Hillary Clinton, the Teflon lady who, like her husband Bill, has wiggled magnificently out of every tight spot she found herself in, including using her private email server while on official government business and deleting 32 000 emails she deemed private. She’s a wily contender, boring and mainstream, which is why she is likely to get the Democratic Party nomination.
That is, unless socialist candidate Bernie Sanders can upset her campaign. He’s far more interesting and offbeat than Clinton, but he will probably lose to her.
Who will be the next US president? Donald Trump, of course.