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A future of cars that drive themselves, of cars with no steering wheel or pedals, is pushing the boundaries of control comfort.
Today’s motorists may still want to be in control, but self-driving vehicles will be a reality within the new few years.
Momentum is gathering as carmakers battle for autonomous vehicle (AV) supremacy and are gearing up for 2021, the year most manufacturers plan to introduce their fully autonomous vehicles.
AVs are light years away from what our parents or grandparents drove. Those vehicles – referred to as “Level Zero” cars on the autonomy spectrum – had no automation of any kind.
Cars on the roads today are mostly defined as Level 1 or 2 by the Society of Automotive Engineers’ (SAE) five levels of autonomous driving (see graphic).
Level 5 refers to fully autonomous vehicles.
South African motorists with control issues will still be able to breathe easy – for now.
While they can already benefit from many driver-assisting, semi-autonomous features, the self-driving car will become a reality sooner for motorists in developed countries.
Self-driving cars already take centre stage at motor shows, as GM’s autonomous car did at the Detroit Auto Show in January. It’s a car without a steering wheel or pedals.
Ford, too, has plans for fully autonomous vehicles without these features.
Planned for operation in 2021, the high-volume vehicles are intended for use in commercial mobility services such as ride-sharing and ride-hailing within geo-fenced areas.
One pedal technology already exists. Nissan’s new zero-emission 100% electric LEAF vehicle has e-Pedal technology that allows drivers to accelerate and brake seamlessly by using just one pedal while constantly generating energy.
Vehicles without steering wheels are also already in operation – like the shuttle buses used on fixed routes in Detroit.
But not all carmakers are going the route of no steering wheel… yet.
Jürgen Stackmann, a board member of Volkswagen, told BBC World News at the Detroit show that it will take years before full autonomous driving becomes a reality, because they believe “many customers are not yet ready for cars without steering wheels”.
In a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center last year, 56% of US adults surveyed said they would not ride in a driverless car if given the opportunity.
Aside from appreciating human skill and lacking trust in technological decision-making, roughly 70% of those surveyed cite a fear of losing control, and/or general safety concerns.
It’s doubtful, though, that driver backup in AVs will be done away with anytime soon. Take the Toyota Research Institute’s Platform 3.0, its next-generation automated driving research vehicle.
Based on a Lexus LS 600h L, the vehicle’s Guardian approach to automated driving experiments with ways of transferring vehicle control from the human test driver to the automated system and back again.
While the adoption date for autonomous cars speeds closer as economics, regulations and technology fall into place, penetration rates for AVs (SAE Level 4/5) are only expected to reach between 5% and 26% in 15 to 20 years, according to Roland Berger/Lazard’s Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.
In South Africa and other developing regions, however, autonomous acceleration might be more lumbering than the sprint of First-World countries.
“The concept of South Africans getting into their cars, pushing a few buttons and reading the newspaper while travelling to their workplace will not happen for a long time, at least another 10 years,” Toyota SA CEO Andrew Kirby said last year.
And even when AVs hit our roads, they will not be widespread, being limited to environments such as some of South Africa’s well-marked freeways.
“Many cars in SA are already at autonomous Levels 1 and 2. But moving beyond that requires a great deal of investment in infrastructure.
That will not be available in South Africa for many years to come. Without that type of infrastructure South Africa won’t get to Level 5 or full autonomy,” said Kirby.
HOW AUTONOMY AFFECTS THE VEHICLE MANUFACTURERS
To keep pace with these developing mobility trends, such as self-driving cars, electric cars and ride-sharing, many car manufacturers have been forced to adapt their business models.
Between 2014 and 2017, the average annual investment across all new mobility technologies jumped nearly six-fold to $25.3bn/year from $4.3bn/year between 2010 and 2013.
The money poured into new mobility in 2017 matched the total invested between 2010 and 2014, with the spend on sharing and autonomous solutions accounting for much of this acceleration, according to a study by McKinsey & Company.
More than 33m autonomous vehicles will be sold globally in 2040, a substantial increase from the 51 000 units forecast for the first year of significant volume in 2021, reports business information provider IHS Markit.
The first autonomous sales are expected from the US, but China will lead in total volume with 14.5m AV sales by 2040.
In Europe, personally owned autonomous cars are forecast to surpass driverless mobility fleets, with 5.5m AV sales predicted annually in 2040.
Other global markets will see late deployment and low adoption of AVs due to a variety of factors limiting their adoption.
IHS Markit forecasts around 6.3m annual sales in 2040 for these combined markets.
Last year saw the first deployment of SAE Level 4 AVs in ride-hailing pilot programmes.
This is a shortened version of an article that originally appeared in the 1 March edition of finweek. Buy and download the magazine here.
