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UK inflation rate remains at 0.3%, far below target

Mar 22 2016 13:45
Jill Ward and Mark Evans

London - The UK’s inflation rate was unexpectedly unchanged in February, remaining far below the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% goal.

Annual consumer-price growth was at 0.3%, the Office for National Statistics said in London on Tuesday. Economists had forecast an acceleration to 0.4%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held at 1.2%.

Inflation has been below the BOE’s target for more than two years, largely due to lower oil prices. With Governor Mark Carney warning about international risks to the UK economy, weak price growth is giving him leeway to keep interest rates at a record low. Pacific Investment Management said its base case is for no UK rate increase this year, and it even sees a greater risk of a cut.

“There are still few signs of any inflationary pressures,” said Martin Beck, an economist at the EY Item Club in London. “Currently, it is difficult to identify any reason why there should be a material pickup in inflation, at least until the base effects from the collapse in the oil price at the end of 2015 start to take effect towards the end of this year.”

ONS statistician Phil Gooding said UK inflation remains around “historically low levels.” Prices posted annual declines in three months in 2015 and the rate hasn’t been higher than 0.3% since 2014. The biggest downward contribution in February came from transport costs, including bicycles and used cars.

On the month, consumer prices rose 0.2% in February, less than economists had forecast.

According to another inflation measure, the RPI, prices rose 1.3% last month compared with a year earlier, matching the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. A separate report showed output prices at factories rose 0.1% in February from January and dropped 1.1% on the year.

boe  |  uk  |  inflation  |  economy
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