SA's January trade gap swells to biggest since 1990

Cape Town - In January South Africa’s trade deficit swelled to the biggest since at least 1990 as imports surged 22% and vehicle exports declined.

The R27.7bn ($2.4bn) gap compares with December’s revised R15.3bn positive balance, the SA Revenue Service (SARS) said in a statement on Wednesday.

The median estimate of four economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a R1.7bn deficit. The gap was R11.2bn a year earlier.

Positive trade balances have eased pressure on the current account, the broadest measure of trade in goods and services, boosting the rand. The currency is the best performer worldwide against the dollar since the ANC voted for Cyril Ramaphosa to lead the party in December, ending Jacob Zuma’s rein. Ramaphosa subsequently became president.

The SA economy probably expanded by 1% in 2017, according to National Treasury estimates. It will probably grow 1.5% this year.

The government is battling to return public finances to a sustainable path and stave off another credit-rating downgrade, following years of stagnant growth and policy missteps that left a gaping hole in the budget.

In January imports totalled R108.2bn, as inward shipments of original equipment components more than doubled from a month earlier. Exports totalled R80.5bn, with vehicle and transport equipment shipments declining 47% from December.

The trade deficit for the year was R27.7bn, compared with a negative balance of R11.3bn a year earlier.

The rand weakened 0.3% to R11.7561 to the dollar by mid-afternoon on Wednesday. The yield on rand-denominated government bonds due December 2026 rose 5 basis points to 8.17%.

The monthly trade figures are often volatile, reflecting the timing of shipments of commodities such as oil and diamonds.

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