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New York - Another horrendous year is drawing to a close in the oil patch.
West Texas Intermediate futures are heading for their biggest ever two-year drop, while Standard & Poor’s Energy Sector Index is set to mark its first consecutive decline since 2002. Futures and equities will post December decreases, signalling more discomfort as 2016 starts.
Oil has tumbled since Saudi Arabia led the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in November 2014 in deciding to maintain output and defend market share against higher-cost producers, generating a record supply glut. Record output this year from Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq has boosted global stockpiles to an all-time high, the International Energy Agency said on December 11.
"The 800 pound gorilla in the room, and by that I mean Saudi Arabia, showed its power," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on energy. "They are on a mission to squeeze out the high-priced producers and aren’t done yet. Things could get very ugly in the second and third quarters for countries like Venezuela and Nigeria and for US exploration companies."
The North American shale and oil-sands plays have been bludgeoned by Opec’s policy change. Chesapeake Energy Crop., Consol Energy and Southwestern Energy are the three worst-performing shares of the S&P 500 this year, all losing in excess of 75% of value.
WTI tumbled 46% in 2014, the biggest drop since the recession in 2008. Futures, which are down 19% this year, traded at $37.85 a barrel at 16:20 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The S&P Energy Index slipped 10% in 2015 and is down 23% this year.
"Oil is probably the market with the biggest reputation for going from boom to bust," said Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York. "It’s pretty clear that we’ve seen substantial bust. The temptation has to be that a boom is around the corner but that big idea isn’t necessarily a guide to market timing."
