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Cape Town - Seventy percent of South Africans fear the country could be heading for social and economic collapse, an opinion poll has found.
According to a mobile survey conducted among 900 South African adults representative in terms of race, age, gender and province by TNS South Africa in partnership with GeoPoll, seven out of ten respondents are worried that South Africa is heading for a social and economic collapse. The results are consistent across race and province.
While most black (73%) and the majority of coloured (59%) people are confident that South Africa will overcome challenges, the sentiment is not shared by white and Indian people, with only 39% in agreement.
This comes after ten hectic days in the world of SA finance. During this period the country experienced a credit downgrading by Standard & Poor's and by Fitch Ratings, a cabinet meeting and three finance ministers in quick succession.
READ: 10 days of shocks and surprises for SA
Four days after sacking Nhlanhla Nene as finance minister and replacing him with David van Rooyen, President Jacob Zuma reappointed Pravin Gordhan as finance minister and shifted Van Rooyen to cooperative governance and traditional affairs.
Gordhan's appointment was widely welcomed by the business community and political parties. The announcement also saw the rand start to recover after it plummeted when Nene was removed.
However, many still feel lasting damage to the South African economy has already been done.
READ: Stop using public institutions as personal toys - Gordhan
Gordhan's reinstatement brought stability back to the JSE’s reeling financial and property heavyweights on Monday. This is after the 17 stocks that make up the JSE’s Top 40 index recouped R118bn of the losses sustained in the previous two sessions.
Counting the cost
But even after Monday’s rebound, the market capitalisation of those 17 stocks remains R171bn below where they closed ahead of Nene’s firing on Wednesday night.
"Translated into everyday language, that’s the easily qualifiable cost of what Zuma’s antics cost the country. Add the hit sustained by the rand and value of bonds, and the national loss is clearly north of R200bn," said Alec Hogg of BizNews.
Even though many analysts have said Zuma's days as president could be numbered, Nomura International emerging markets economist Peter Attard Montalto does not expect him to be ousted in the short term.
Montalto believes that even under Gordhan, South Africa is still heading for sub-investment grade although he remains confident on the fiscal situation in the short term at least.
Market trust has been shaken by the dramatic volatility of recent events and part of this loss of trust will be permanent, said Montalto.
READ: Inside SA's Pandora's box
"Pandora’s box of the long-run risks on South Africa has been opened, even if we now have taken a slight step back. Volatility risk premia and uncertainty risk premia as a result have increased and not reversed course today (Monday) completely," added Montalto.
