Cosatu strike will have limited impact, say economists

Cape Town – Cosatu’s countrywide one-day stay-away on Friday is unlikely to have a significant impact on the South African economy, according to economists.

“In the greater scheme of things the one-day march won’t make a dent in our GDP figures,” said KPMG economist Christie Viljoen, especially when compared to the paralysing five-month strike in the platinum sector in 2014.

Viljoen said the breakaway of large affiliated trade unions, such as the National Union of Metalworkers of SA at the end of 2014 and the Food and the Allied Workers Union in August, could limit the trade union federation's reach on Friday.

READ: Life outside Cosatu 

According to Viljoen, Cosatu’s estimate that about 200 000 workers would take part in protest action nationwide could be over-optimistic. "I'm quite sceptical of this number, especially since it's not associated with a specific sector of the economy," he said. 

Stellenbsoch University development economist Dieter von Fintel, however, was of the view that the turnout so far showed the trade union federation is still a force to be reckoned with. “The fact that Cosatu marches on this day, which coincides with the World Day for Decent Work,” is significant.

READ: Cosatu: It can't be business as usual on jobs, corruption

Von Fintel said research by the University of the Western Cape showed a decline in the number of decent jobs on offer in recent years, as well as a mismatch between the highly skilled jobs in demand and South Africans' education levels.

“In 1995, around 15% of South Africans were over-qualified for the positions they occupied and this has since increased to 25%, which shows that there are fewer decent jobs for semi-skilled workers available.”

If South Africa wants to make inroads in the creation of decent work opportunities, it will have to expand its manufacturing sector which will be able to absorb more semi-skilled workers.