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Cape Town - Retail trade sales increased by 3.1% year-on-year in January 2018, Statistics SA announced on Thursday.
This increase is measured in real terms, in other words at constant 2015 prices.
The highest annual growth rates were recorded for retailers in household furniture, appliances and equipment (9.2%); retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods (6.5%); and all 'other' retailers (5.8%).
The main contributors to the 3.1% increase were retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods; all "other" retailers; and general dealers.
Seasonally adjusted retail trade sales decreased by 1.6% month-on-month (m/m) in January 2018. This followed m/m changes of -3.3% in December 2017 and 4.0% in November 2017. In the three months ended January 2018, seasonally adjusted retail trade sales increased by 0.9% compared with the previous three months.
Retail trade sales increased by 5.4% in the three months ended January 2018 compared with the three months ended January 2017.
The main contributors to this increase were retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods (8.0%); all "other" retailers (13.8%); and general dealers (3.3%).
Jason Muscat, senior economic analyst at FNB, said January retail trade sales moderated slightly from a downwardly revised 5.1% in December.
"The data suggests that there is a recovery underway in the household consumption of durable and semi-durable goods which have struggled under the low growth environment," said Muscat.
"We believe retail sales will continue to perform at these levels through 2018 as credit growth picks up, wage growth tracks roughly 2% ahead of inflation, CPI remains benign and the tailwind of last year’s interest rate cut (and the potential for another next week) begin to take a firmer hold.
"Nevertheless, FNB expects that a hike in the VAT rate, fiscal drag and the 52c/litre added to the fuel price will hold back a more robust expansion."
According to Nedbank Group's economic unit, retail sales growth is likely to remain firm in the months ahead, but the growth rate is expected to be lower than the exceptionally strong rises that were recorded in the second half of 2017.
In its view, consumer spending is likely to remain supported by lower inflation and debt service costs as well as higher consumer confidence, which will be underpinned by some positive political developments in 2018.
Wholesale trade sales
Statistics SA also released preliminary wholesale trade sales on Thursday.
Measured in real terms, in other words in constant 2015 prices, wholesale trade sales decreased by 1.9% in January 2018 compared with January 2017.
Seasonally adjusted wholesale trade sales decreased by 0.9% in January 2018 compared with December 2017. This followed month-on-month changes of -2.0% in December 2017 and 1.7% in November 2017.
In the three months ended January 2018, seasonally adjusted wholesale trade sales increased by 1.9% compared with the previous three months.
Measured in nominal terms - therefore at current prices - wholesale trade sales increased by 4.3% in January 2018 compared with January 2017.
The main contributors to this increase were dealers in food, beverages and tobacco (9.7%); precious stones, jewellery and silverware (102.2%); and machinery, equipment and supplies (9.4%).
Wholesale trade sales increased by 4.0% in the three months ended January 2018 compared with the three months ended January 2017.
The main contributors to this increase were dealers in solid, liquid and gaseous fuels and related products (9.4%); food, beverages and tobacco (7.6%); and precious stones, jewellery and silverware (61.3%).
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