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JUST over 2 000 years ago, the Roman emperor Caligula uttered a phrase, unforgettable because of its simple cynicism: Oderint, dum metuant. Translated, it means: “Let them hate me, as long as they fear me.”
These words might as well be spoken today by a new emperor, one who is, however, called by another title, namely president. I am talking about Vladimir Putin of Russia.
Something worryingly interesting is happening to Putin and his country. His economy is crumbling all around him, his people are hurting, and yet he is feared by the West. And his people rally behind him like never before.
Let us look at some facts regarding the recent performance of the Russian economy. A joke apparently doing the rounds in Moscow (according to Bloomberg Businessweek) is about what binds together Putin, the oil price and the rouble’s value against the dollar. Answer: they will all hit 63 next year.
The oil price has dropped from far over $100 a barrel to below $70, and it may even drop further. Which means, according to Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, that the country’s income has dropped by $90bn to $100bn.
The fact is that the Russian economy is largely – about 50% – dependent on oil and gas. We have seen how Putin has used his oil and gas exports as a political weapon during the last few months.
Rouble falling like a stone
The rouble has also fallen like a stone. About six months ago it stood at 34 to the dollar, while it traded at 54 earlier this week.
Which means that many things in Russia are getting more expensive by the day. And even well-off people, let alone the poor, are feeling the disastrous effects in their pockets.
Well, the falling oil price is one of those things about which one can only say: stuff happens. Nobody can do anything about it.
But the West’s economic sanctions against Russia cannot be categorised as “stuff”. They are the direct result of Putin’s annexation of the Crimea and his clandestine destabilisation of the Ukraine.
And according to Minister Siluanov, the combination of sanctions and the falling oil price is costing the Russian economy $140bn, or 6.7% of the country’s gross national product. In fact, the Russian economy has shrunk (by 0.8% this year) to about the size of Spain’s, long regarded as one of Europe’s more feeble economies, The Telegraph reports.
In addition, according to The New York Times, Russia owes about $700bn to Western banks, much of it by the huge state-run companies on which the economy to a great extent rests.
All of this, as stated above, is eating into ordinary Russians’ spending power. Yet Putin’s popularity constantly hovers around 80% in opinion polls. A sizeable majority – around 60% – say they are not concerned with their country’s international isolation.
Why is this? Perhaps a historical analogy may help explain.
During the middle of the 19th century, a wave of liberalism swept Europe. The year 1848 saw a series of popular uprisings which brought down the French monarchy (again!) and caused the political, social and economic elite’s hearts to tremble.
In Germany, liberal intellectuals came together in the Paulskirche in Frankfurt and started working on a liberal democratic constitution for a united Germany. However, one man shattered these democratic dreams. He was the newly-appointed Prussian chancellor, Otto von Bismarck.
Bismarck stopped the democratic movement in its tracks, and for a while he was the most hated man in all of Germany. But he was also a supreme realist, who saw that he had to give the people something.
Trading liberalism for nationalism
So he gave them nationalism. He united Germany, using a combination of military might and the idea of a single German nation. He traded liberalism for nationalism.
Something similar is happening in Putin’s Russia. Few people in the West realise how deeply the proud Russians felt humiliated by their defeat in the Cold War and the disintegration of the USSR.
The democracy which sprang up in Russia after 1991 went hand in hand with economic hardship and national humiliation. Like the Germany of the Weimar Republic years, democracy in Russia was conceived and born, in the eyes of the people, in sin.
Putin gave them back their pride and self-respect. He made them feel like men again.
Therefore, they are now digging in their heels. Let the West do their damnedest, they seem to be saying. The Crimea belongs to us, and we will take the Ukraine too. And there is nothing you can do about it. We are a tough people, used to hardship. We survived the terrible Nazi years, we shall prevail again.
Indeed: Oderint, dum metuant. Let them hate us, as long as they fear us!
* Leopold Scholtz is an independent political analyst who lives in Europe. Views expressed are his own.
These words might as well be spoken today by a new emperor, one who is, however, called by another title, namely president. I am talking about Vladimir Putin of Russia.
Something worryingly interesting is happening to Putin and his country. His economy is crumbling all around him, his people are hurting, and yet he is feared by the West. And his people rally behind him like never before.
Let us look at some facts regarding the recent performance of the Russian economy. A joke apparently doing the rounds in Moscow (according to Bloomberg Businessweek) is about what binds together Putin, the oil price and the rouble’s value against the dollar. Answer: they will all hit 63 next year.
The oil price has dropped from far over $100 a barrel to below $70, and it may even drop further. Which means, according to Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, that the country’s income has dropped by $90bn to $100bn.
The fact is that the Russian economy is largely – about 50% – dependent on oil and gas. We have seen how Putin has used his oil and gas exports as a political weapon during the last few months.
Rouble falling like a stone
The rouble has also fallen like a stone. About six months ago it stood at 34 to the dollar, while it traded at 54 earlier this week.
Which means that many things in Russia are getting more expensive by the day. And even well-off people, let alone the poor, are feeling the disastrous effects in their pockets.
Well, the falling oil price is one of those things about which one can only say: stuff happens. Nobody can do anything about it.
But the West’s economic sanctions against Russia cannot be categorised as “stuff”. They are the direct result of Putin’s annexation of the Crimea and his clandestine destabilisation of the Ukraine.
And according to Minister Siluanov, the combination of sanctions and the falling oil price is costing the Russian economy $140bn, or 6.7% of the country’s gross national product. In fact, the Russian economy has shrunk (by 0.8% this year) to about the size of Spain’s, long regarded as one of Europe’s more feeble economies, The Telegraph reports.
In addition, according to The New York Times, Russia owes about $700bn to Western banks, much of it by the huge state-run companies on which the economy to a great extent rests.
All of this, as stated above, is eating into ordinary Russians’ spending power. Yet Putin’s popularity constantly hovers around 80% in opinion polls. A sizeable majority – around 60% – say they are not concerned with their country’s international isolation.
Why is this? Perhaps a historical analogy may help explain.
During the middle of the 19th century, a wave of liberalism swept Europe. The year 1848 saw a series of popular uprisings which brought down the French monarchy (again!) and caused the political, social and economic elite’s hearts to tremble.
In Germany, liberal intellectuals came together in the Paulskirche in Frankfurt and started working on a liberal democratic constitution for a united Germany. However, one man shattered these democratic dreams. He was the newly-appointed Prussian chancellor, Otto von Bismarck.
Bismarck stopped the democratic movement in its tracks, and for a while he was the most hated man in all of Germany. But he was also a supreme realist, who saw that he had to give the people something.
Trading liberalism for nationalism
So he gave them nationalism. He united Germany, using a combination of military might and the idea of a single German nation. He traded liberalism for nationalism.
Something similar is happening in Putin’s Russia. Few people in the West realise how deeply the proud Russians felt humiliated by their defeat in the Cold War and the disintegration of the USSR.
The democracy which sprang up in Russia after 1991 went hand in hand with economic hardship and national humiliation. Like the Germany of the Weimar Republic years, democracy in Russia was conceived and born, in the eyes of the people, in sin.
Putin gave them back their pride and self-respect. He made them feel like men again.
Therefore, they are now digging in their heels. Let the West do their damnedest, they seem to be saying. The Crimea belongs to us, and we will take the Ukraine too. And there is nothing you can do about it. We are a tough people, used to hardship. We survived the terrible Nazi years, we shall prevail again.
Indeed: Oderint, dum metuant. Let them hate us, as long as they fear us!
* Leopold Scholtz is an independent political analyst who lives in Europe. Views expressed are his own.
