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WITH the platinum mine strike - one of the most crippling in South Africa’s history - finally at an end, observers are trying to draw up a balance sheet. Who won? Who blinked first?
There were five interested parties: the workers, the employers, the ANC government, the South African economy, and the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu) – the trade union which organised the strike.
Let us look at each.
The workers
Judged solely by the accord between the employers and Amcu, the workers definitely made some progress. Without going into particulars, they received substantial wage increases, albeit not as much as they had demanded.
But at the same time the workers lost a massive R10.6bn in wages while the strike lasted. Many workers almost starved and had to rely on hand-outs to get by. Others had to borrow large sums of money. They built up a huge debt which will take years and years to pay back.
Besides, an element missing in the accord between the employers and Amcu is a promise not to lay off more workers. We will probably see several pits closed within the next year or so, as the strike pushed them from marginally profitable into loss-making.
Of course, it is impossible to predict how many people will be laid off, but it does not take a rocket scientist to see that the number will be substantial.
In other words, the price paid by the workers is such that they, in effect, lost.
The employers
The employers will have to fork out more money for the workers. As stated above, chances are that several pits will have to be closed as well.
Therefore, the employers have little reason to smile. They, too, lost.
The ANC government
There can be little doubt that the ruling ANC did not emerge from the strike smelling of roses. There are two reasons for this.
Firstly, the ANC-supporting trade union, the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), was trounced by Amcu, which tends to be more in the Julius Malema or the the National Union of Metalworkers of SA (Numsa) camp.
The problem is that the NUM became part and parcel of the comfortable ANC gravy train and forgot whose interests they were supposed to serve. When the much more radical Amcu came along, the mineworkers crossed over en masse to the newcomer.
This was a motion of no confidence by the workers in the ANC government and its cronies like the NUM.
Secondly, the government’s attempts to mediate in the strike were pathetic and mostly marked by a deafening silence. It is one thing to try and mediate and fail; it is quite another to flutter once or twice and then watch how an important sector of the economy goes to pot.
It is easy for President Jacob Zuma to promise an annual growth of 5% by 2019, as he did in his State of the Nation address. But this is not the way to do it, and it does his credibility no good.
Internationally, the government got no kudos for its inability; nationally, it confirmed the low esteem in which it is held by the mineworkers.
The ANC government definitely lost.
The South African economy
The figures do not lie: according to Statistics SA the South African economy contracted by an annualised rate of 0.6% in the first quarter of 2014, compared to a growth of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2013. Because of the strike, mining output fell by 25%. This was responsible for a fall of 1.3 percentage points in the country’s economic growth.
It is crystal clear that the five-month strike harmed the South African economy considerably. It hampered job creation and will most probably contribute to job losses far beyond the mining sector.
The South African economy lost. And with it South Africans in all walks of life, directly and indirectly, will suffer as well.
Amcu
But not all is doom and gloom. I am happy to report to readers that we do have one winner. This is Amcu itself.
Amcu has become ensconced as a considerable force in the labour field. Chances are that the union will ally itself with Numsa, the other trade union which is leading a revolt against the ANC and its ally, Cosatu, and perhaps with Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters too.
In fact, one wonders if Amcu called the strike especially in order to establish itself as a force to be reckoned with.
If so, this must rank as one of the most irresponsible acts ever taken by a trade union in South African history. It has achieved its victory on the backs of ordinary South Africans and of its own members.
Apparently, Amcu won't lose any sleep over the deep problems it has saddled its members with in the wake of the strike.
Alas, world history has many examples of would-be dictators using the masses to rise to power, only to trample their heads into the mud.
Will Amcu be any different?
- Fin24
* Leopold Scholtz is an independent political analyst who lives in Europe. Views expressed are his own.
There were five interested parties: the workers, the employers, the ANC government, the South African economy, and the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu) – the trade union which organised the strike.
Let us look at each.
The workers
Judged solely by the accord between the employers and Amcu, the workers definitely made some progress. Without going into particulars, they received substantial wage increases, albeit not as much as they had demanded.
But at the same time the workers lost a massive R10.6bn in wages while the strike lasted. Many workers almost starved and had to rely on hand-outs to get by. Others had to borrow large sums of money. They built up a huge debt which will take years and years to pay back.
Besides, an element missing in the accord between the employers and Amcu is a promise not to lay off more workers. We will probably see several pits closed within the next year or so, as the strike pushed them from marginally profitable into loss-making.
Of course, it is impossible to predict how many people will be laid off, but it does not take a rocket scientist to see that the number will be substantial.
In other words, the price paid by the workers is such that they, in effect, lost.
The employers
The employers will have to fork out more money for the workers. As stated above, chances are that several pits will have to be closed as well.
Therefore, the employers have little reason to smile. They, too, lost.
The ANC government
There can be little doubt that the ruling ANC did not emerge from the strike smelling of roses. There are two reasons for this.
Firstly, the ANC-supporting trade union, the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), was trounced by Amcu, which tends to be more in the Julius Malema or the the National Union of Metalworkers of SA (Numsa) camp.
The problem is that the NUM became part and parcel of the comfortable ANC gravy train and forgot whose interests they were supposed to serve. When the much more radical Amcu came along, the mineworkers crossed over en masse to the newcomer.
This was a motion of no confidence by the workers in the ANC government and its cronies like the NUM.
Secondly, the government’s attempts to mediate in the strike were pathetic and mostly marked by a deafening silence. It is one thing to try and mediate and fail; it is quite another to flutter once or twice and then watch how an important sector of the economy goes to pot.
It is easy for President Jacob Zuma to promise an annual growth of 5% by 2019, as he did in his State of the Nation address. But this is not the way to do it, and it does his credibility no good.
Internationally, the government got no kudos for its inability; nationally, it confirmed the low esteem in which it is held by the mineworkers.
The ANC government definitely lost.
The South African economy
The figures do not lie: according to Statistics SA the South African economy contracted by an annualised rate of 0.6% in the first quarter of 2014, compared to a growth of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2013. Because of the strike, mining output fell by 25%. This was responsible for a fall of 1.3 percentage points in the country’s economic growth.
It is crystal clear that the five-month strike harmed the South African economy considerably. It hampered job creation and will most probably contribute to job losses far beyond the mining sector.
The South African economy lost. And with it South Africans in all walks of life, directly and indirectly, will suffer as well.
Amcu
But not all is doom and gloom. I am happy to report to readers that we do have one winner. This is Amcu itself.
Amcu has become ensconced as a considerable force in the labour field. Chances are that the union will ally itself with Numsa, the other trade union which is leading a revolt against the ANC and its ally, Cosatu, and perhaps with Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters too.
In fact, one wonders if Amcu called the strike especially in order to establish itself as a force to be reckoned with.
If so, this must rank as one of the most irresponsible acts ever taken by a trade union in South African history. It has achieved its victory on the backs of ordinary South Africans and of its own members.
Apparently, Amcu won't lose any sleep over the deep problems it has saddled its members with in the wake of the strike.
Alas, world history has many examples of would-be dictators using the masses to rise to power, only to trample their heads into the mud.
Will Amcu be any different?
- Fin24
* Leopold Scholtz is an independent political analyst who lives in Europe. Views expressed are his own.
