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South Africa’s weak economic growth is due to unsustainable policies and monetary policy alone can’t fix that, Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said on Wednesday.
Data released on Tuesday showed SA's economy slumped into its second recession since President Cyril Ramaphosa came to power at the start of 2018, after gross domestic product declined more than projected in the fourth quarter. That was largely blamed on power cuts that intensified in the period, knocking business confidence.
“The supply-side of this economy is in deep trouble,” Kganyago said Wednesday in a public lecture in the central city of Bloemfontein. “Unfortunately, these kinds of growth constraints are beyond the reach of monetary policy.”
For the full year, economic growth was 0.2%, the lowest since the global financial crisis, and half of what the Reserve Bank estimated in January when it cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points.
While the Reserve Bank targets inflation at 3% to 6%, Kganyago has made it clear for the past two years that it prefers to see price growth anchored close to the midpoint of the band. With price growth at or less than 4.5% for 14 months and economic growth stuck below 1% since 2018, the central bank has been criticized by some politicians and labor unions who say it should do more to boost the economy and help tackle an unemployment rate of 29%.
The monetary policy committee’s projection model priced in only one more 25-basis-point cut late this year. However, after the recession news and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s emergency rate cut on Tuesday to counter the impact of the coronavirus on output, some calls for Kganyago to act have grown. The MPC is scheduled to announce its next rate decision on March 19.
“If South African inflation were to moderate further, we would have more space to lower interest rates,” Kganyago said. “But even with extremely low growth, inflation does not appear to be slowing further, and we see almost no risk of inflation missing our target from below, which has been a problem for many other countries.”
--With assistance from Gordon Bell.
