SA population growth on the decline

2011-01-25 12:21

Johannesburg - South Africa's population is expected to grow at a decreased rate between 2010 and 2040 due to the impact of HIV/Aids and lower fertility rates, a survey released by the SA Institute for Race Relations (SAIRR) on Tuesday predicts.

"Between 2010 and 2030, South Africa's population will grow, although at a decreasing rate each year," an extract from the 2009/10 South Africa Survey shows.

By 2030 the population is expected to be 53.81 million, anticipated to drop to 53.74 million by 2035, and to 53.28 million by 2040.

This is based on data gleaned from the Institute of Futures Research at the University of Stellenbosch.

The SAIRR said in South Africa the number of deaths per year is making up for an increasingly higher proportion of births.

In 1985, deaths were 25% of births. The Actuarial Society of South Africa said this would increase to 87% of births by 2021.

Thuthukani Ndebele, a researcher at the institute, said: "If this trend continues, there will soon be more deaths than births in South Africa. It is evident that the HIV/Aids pandemic has resulted in an increasing number of deaths."

Ndebele said these deaths are mostly among people in the child-bearing age group, which will result in decreasing numbers of births.

Between 2001 and 2010, South Africa's fertility rate slipped from 2.86 to 2.38 births per woman.

By 2040, the fertility rate will have dropped to 1.98 births per woman - lower than the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman needed for the population to reproduce itself.

Ndebele said the lower fertility rates were related to better access to education and contraceptives, which results in women having fewer children.

"A combination of increasing deaths as a result of the HIV/Aids pandemic, as well as lower fertility rates will result in population shrinkage after 2030," Ndebele said.

"This can be positive as there will be less strain on resources in South Africa. However, it will also be negative, as there will be fewer people to contribute to the economy and its internal consumer markets."


  • sunny - 2011-01-25 13:09

    impossible..Zuma will never let this happen...he has 20 and counting

  • Nasdaq7 - 2011-01-25 13:17


  • John Maynard - 2011-01-25 13:41

    No, immigration is expected to decline because they have all already arrived.

  • Jim - 2011-01-25 14:08

    ZUMA will make up for the decline, We are confident of that.

  • friend - 2011-01-25 14:31

    I dont believe it. HIV is a myhth, maybe we should ask the myth'busters to investigate!!

  • Bob_MacGarbage - 2011-01-25 15:02

    No problem, do what we doing here in Zim, bring the China man in and the Kwera Kwera to fill the gap...

  • jaycee - 2011-01-25 16:18

    How is it possible? Mbeki then agreed with his soul mate Msimang that garlic and roots could stop the spreading of Aids. Now we hear Aids has had a negative impact on the population growth. Ai toggie!

  • labrat - 2011-01-25 16:30

    Can't really consider Zuma. Its is the birth rate per WOMAN that matters.

  • Looter - 2011-01-25 17:33

    they make this sound like a bad thing!!! we are bilions in a world that should handle millions!

  • James N Hanyani - 2011-01-25 18:26

    It is therefore very important that HIV positive men and women still be promoted to bear children and the government ensuring that the mother to child transmission is totally prevented.

      Darkwing Duck - 2011-05-05 20:05

      No can do. The ANC only thinks it is God, it may even make claims to offer access to heaven. However, there are some things that are way beyond the ANC's ability to control...ok, make that most things, but this is definately one of them!

  • HaggardGnome - 2011-01-25 18:54

    Hell's teeth! Either their figures are wrong, or Zuma is not trying hard enough!

  • BigAl - 2011-05-05 17:49

    The way the police keep shooting innocent people aids deaths will be taken over by them.

  • shadung.raymond - 2011-12-01 12:46

    Its very painful that the population will be reduced by HIV pandemic and this will have a negative effect on the economy as more ARV`s have to be supplied and there will be less people participating on the growing of our economy. So de government must try by all means to come up with good srategies to root out this night-mare. I say HIV/AIDS testing must be compulsary and all men in SA must be circumsised as it is scientifically proven that circumcision reduce HIV infection.

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