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Johannesburg - Mine workers and analysts are concerned that they will not be able to bridge the gulf between them and gold producers, if they table a predicted wage increase offer of between 5% and 6% on Monday.
And this raises the spectre of industrial action, which would certainly affect the country’s already faltering economy.
Mining analyst Peter Major appealed to unions and gold producers meeting at the Chamber of Mines in Johannesburg on Monday to avoid a strike at all cost, because this could halve the country’s economic growth forecasts, recently pegged at 2% for this year, to a mere 1%.
“I don’t think there’s an appetite for a strike – mine workers are indebted and going without an income is unthinkable for some of them. If you look at how the platinum strike affected those who were indebted, it is clear no worker really wants to strike,” said Major.
“A sustainable settlement is a must because gold prices are falling and mines are in a weakened state. Moreover, mine workers have seen how huge demands have led to job losses elsewhere in the mining sector. The union’s demands are insane because the mines today are producing 150 000 tons per year, the same [low] amount of gold per year that was produced more than 60 years ago.”
Research by credit bureau Compuscan showed that after last year’s devastating five-month-long platinum sector strike, the percentage of mine workers who owed more than R100 000 in accumulated debt and were a month overdue in payments rose from 73% to 88%.
Mining analyst Peter Worthington from Barclays said he was also unsure if mine workers would want to embark on strike action after seeing the financial devastation of the platinum strike last year on workers in that sector.
“At the moment, we’ve got two sides that are very far apart. But it’s not clear to me whether the workforce has that appetite to strike after seeing platinum miners taking a very long time to recoup and recover from the long strike last year. I think the gold workforce will be less militant this time,” said Worthington.
However, he said that competition between the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu) and the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) could see these two major unions playing “hardball” in the negotiations.
“Neither union can afford to be seen to be too easy on gold mines because they might lose membership to the other union. Neither of them can afford to be seen to be giving in, so a strike is a very real possibility. The big hurt to economic growth is when there’s a strike and production stops – gold is a big part of our export basket,” said Worthington.
Memory Johnstone, who spoke on behalf of gold producers, said gold mines wanted a “measured” conversation with unions and would appeal to the unions to consider a “sustainable” solution that would protect jobs and continue to attract investors.
With the gold industry at a “crossroads”, Johnstone said gold producers had offered an economic and social-sustainability compact steeped in the principles of “profitability, sustainability, transparency and information sharing, employment retention and fair return to all stakeholders in the context of the industry’s challenging situation”.
She hinted at the possibility of job losses in the event of a lengthy strike.
“The aim of sustaining jobs in an economically viable manner lies at the heart of the proposed compact, and is certainly one of the things on which we can all agree is an industry and country imperative,” said Johnstone.
Amcu, which had already dismissed the gold producer’s proposals in the compact, said that while negotiations would be “difficult” for workers, a decision on whether to embark on industrial action would be made depending on how employers responded to their demands.
Amcu treasurer Jimmy Gama said: “The employer might not entertain our demands and force workers to vote for a strike. No worker has an appetite for a strike, but you can never trust employers to tell you the whole truth about the financial health of their mines. When mines are doing great and the gold price is high, nothing is transferred to hard-working miners.”
Gama said their demands – ranging from R9 500 to R12 500 for mine workers currently earning R5 000 – were not unreasonable.
“We seek to improve the lives of our members. We are seeking R6 500 and R7 000 more for workers, depending on the category they fall in. If at any given time we believe there has been no progress in the negotiations, we will follow procedure and file a dispute for a strike,” he said.
NUM spokesperson Livhuwani Mammburuu said the union would wait for the wage offer tomorrow before making a statement.
