Cape Town - Monday is D-Day a - Decision Day - for the government and its public sector employees, says Terry Bell in his latest Labour Wrap. That is when the government is scheduled to table its probable final offer which may be accepted in coming weeks or may result in strike action.
But, Bell adds, this is a time to remember that workers should not be blamed for poor management. At the same time, sympathy should be extended to any competent managers, whether in a school, government department or parastatal, who often have to deal with a legacy of maladministration, all too often accompanied by levels of corruption.
Above all, he points out, the responsibility for the lengthy and fraught negotiations between public sector unions and their state employers, rests primarily with the government. Bell notes that government, as an employer, is committed, by law and international convention, to collective bargaining. However, at the same time, it contradicts this by pre-determining in a national Budget what increases will be awarded to the public sector.
It is this contradiction that saw the pay talks three years ago drag on for 11 months. The current negotiations have been underway for more than seven months, having started in September last year, a full six months before the end of the previous, three-year deal. The early start was largely an attempt by the unions to conclude an agreement, or at least to influence the Budget allocation.
It was in those early stages that government negotiators tabled an initial pay offer of 5.8%. Reacting to Budget constraints, the offer was subsequently reduced to 4.8%. This is unprecedented in wage negotiations and caused considerable anger among public sector workers.
A number of other issues, including the demand to close the substantial wage and benefits gap between higher and lower paid and to dealing adequately with the vexed problem of housing, were still not resolved when the matter went to conciliation. Some of these outstanding issues have been on the table since 2007.
Bell says that while teachers and nurses earn more than the extremely low average wage, this is not enough to obtain a bond for a house. At the same time it is too much to qualify for state assistance. If, on Monday, the offer amounts to benefits equal to a 7% pay rise, an agreement should be reached.
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* Terry Bell is a political, economic and labour analyst. Views expressed are his own. Follow him on twitter @telbelsa.