A crucial Christmas in store for three besieged UK retailers

Among those with the most at stake are department-store operators Debenhams and House of Fraser, as well as fashion retailer New Look Retail Group, owned by embattled billionaire Christo Wiese. Despite Black Friday promotions having been spread over two weeks in November, all three retailers are among the few still discounting by as much as 50%.

The weekend of December 9 to December 10, widespread snowfall across the UK caused a 9.1% drop in the number of shoppers at British retail destinations, according to researcher Springboard, leaving retailers hoping for a glut of pent-up demand to materialise before Christmas.

That’s adding to the strain wrought by soaring labor and sourcing costs exacerbated by the Brexit-induced weakness of the pound, as well as a squeeze on Britons’ disposable incomes. Last month, Next CEO Simon Wolfson said consumer behavior was subdued and he didn’t expect that trend to change over the peak shopping season.

Then there’s the rise of e-commerce, which is sucking demand away from physical stores and leaving them struggling to adapt. Such concerns helped to prompt Unibail-Rodamco's $15.8bn acquisition of shopping-centre operator Westfield this week.

“Historically Christmas trading has kept the wolf from the door for a lot of struggling retailers, but I’m not sure that’s going to be the case this time around,” independent analyst Richard Hyman said by phone. “The golden quarter isn’t looking so golden.”

The tough conditions have already claimed several victims. Austin Reed, once tailor to Winston Churchill, collapsed last year. That was quickly followed by the demise of BHS, which put 11 000 people out of work.

This year a clutch of smaller retailers - including fashion chain Jaeger and furniture seller Multiyork - have buckled under the pressure from rising costs and weak demand.

Debenhams

Debenhams, a midmarket department-store chain that traces its roots to an 18th-century London fabric store, isn’t yet under the financial stress of New Look or House of Fraser. But while the business generates cash and net debt is stable, demand isn’t: Like-for-like sales in UK stores have fallen for 10 consecutive years, according to Deutsche Bank estimates.

Short selling of the company’s shares has surged to the highest level since the financial crisis.

“Debenhams has operating profits only just ahead of their rents, rates and utility bills. It’s a race between them and House of Fraser as to who will go down first,” according to Crispin Odey, whose hedge fund Odey Asset Management holds a short position worth £21m, equivalent to 5.1% of the company’s outstanding shares. “The real trouble will come in January.”

Investec analyst Kate Calvert upgraded Debenhams to a hold rating this week, saying the shares had fallen to a level where a takeover offer is becoming more likely. Sports Direct International founder and CEO Mike Ashley holds a 21% stake in the company.

Spokespeople for Debenhams, House of Fraser and New Look declined to comment for this article.

New Look

In November, Brait - an investment vehicle of billionaire Wiese, who’s also the biggest shareholder in troubled Steinhoff International - wrote off the value of its £780m investment in value fashion retailer New Look after just two years of ownership.

After the departure of New Look CEO Anders Kristiansen in September and an 8.6% decline in comparable sales in the first half, Brait has been trying to stabilise the retailer’s performance.

A tranche of £700m of New Look bonds fell to a record-low 40 pence on the pound on Thursday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Its unsecured bonds are quoted at less than 21 pence on the pound.

The debt was quoted near face value at the beginning of the year, but losses for creditors are now likely following an “implosion of profitability,” according to CreditSights analyst Helen Rodriguez.

The accounting scandal at Steinhoff has wiped more than $2bn from Wiese’s wealth and is another unhelpful development for New Look, Rodriguez said.

House of Fraser

Moody’s Investors Service cut House of Fraser to Caa1, seven levels below investment grade, on December 8. The retailer, which operates 59 department stores across the UK, is in danger of breaching its debt covenants, analysts said.

That’s despite a recent cash injection from its Chinese owner, Sanpower, to give it enough funds to do business through the holiday season.

Law firm Orrick, which specializes in debt restructuring, listed House of Fraser as among a potential “increased number of insolvencies and restructurings in the retail sector in the near future” in a November report.

The retailer’s £175m of bonds due in 2020 are quoted at 86 pence on the pound, near a record-low 81 pence in June, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.