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Residential building activity under pressure

Johannesburg - Levels of residential building activity in the South African market for new housing showed very little change on an annual basis in the first eleven months of 2013, according to Jacques du Toit, property analyst at Absa Home Loans.

Since the start of 1994 up to November 2013 a total number of 1 123 242 private sectorfinanced new housing units were built county-wide, of which about 823 370 units, or 73,3% of the total, were constructed in the segments for smaller-sized houses of below 80m² and higher-density flats and townhouses.

The number of new housing units for which building plans were approved dropped by 32,4% year-on-year (y/y) to 3 761 units in November, and was down by as much as 1 627 units compared with October 2013.

All three segments of housing showed a substantial year-on-year decline in November in terms of the number of plans approved.

The construction phase of new housing saw a drop of 30% y/y to 3 331 units built in November last year, which were 1 306 units less than in October.

As was the case in the planning phase, all three categories of housing contributed to the lower volume of new housing units built in November compared with the corresponding month a year ago.

The first eleven months of 2013 saw the real value of plans approved for new residential buildings rising by 9.4% y/y, or R2.6bn, to R30.2bn from R27.6bn in the corresponding period last year.

The real value of residential buildings reported as completed increased by 8% y/y, or R1.6bn, to R21.1bn in the period January to November from R19.5bn in the same period last year.

The above-inflation rise in the real value of residential building was driven by increasing building costs in the first eleven months of the year.

The cost per square metre of new housing built in the period January
to November 2013 increased by 9.7% y/y to an average of R5 160. The real values of residential building activity are calculated at constant 2010 prices.

Residential building activity will continue to be driven by conditions in and the outlook for the economy, household finances, consumer and building confidence, building costs and factors related to the demand for and supply of new housing in general.

The focus on the supply of new housing in the segments of smaller-sized houses and higher-density flats and townhouses is an indication of the affordability of housing and mortgage finance against the background of the state of household finances, as well as changing lifestyles.

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