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London - Just two weeks before Glencore [JSE:GLN] can make a new approach for Rio Tinto, the rival that rejected it last summer, the Swiss firm once seen as a deal machine seems unlikely to strike again or charm investors with any other major move soon.
The trading and mining company's shares were hit by a slump in copper prices this year, and its debt is high, diminishing its deal making ability and focusing attention instead on the quality of assets that it bought in previous spending sprees.
Glencore's portfolio includes some high costs and problematic assets. While Rio Tinto and BHP [JSE:BIL] have the largest, lowest cost iron ore assets in the world in Australia, Glencore relies for a big chunk of earnings on operations in risky countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo.
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It's also struggling with some oil and mining assets, having bought Chad-focused oil business Caracal ahead of a collapse in oil prices and being forced to post a $8bn write-down on mining assets acquired in its record breaking $46bn buy of Xstrata in 2013 - the largest ever mining acquisition.
"The rationale of their deals is always sound but timing wise there are certainly some question marks. It shows they have got as little visibility as the others when it comes to prices," said Macquarie analyst Jeff Largey.
Short-term, sources close to the company say it will consider a share buyback, possibly as soon its first half results in August, to lift its struggling share price.
"They are not exactly rolling in cash at the moment but a buy back would be the most likely use of any extra money this year," said one industry source with knowledge of the company.
Longer-term, analysts broadly expect that higher prices for Glencore's commodity mix - copper, zinc and nickel - will give it the edge against rivals whose iron ore operations are likely to keep suffering from falling prices.
That divergence could in turn fund Glencore's next buying spree.
According to Reuters I/B/E/S, 13 analysts still recommend buying the stock while five have a sell rating on it.
Second act
Few observers believe that Glencore chief executive Ivan Glasenberg's acquisitions ambition is satiated and the company needs to improve its range of assets to keep investors happy.
Earlier this month, at Glencore's annual results conference, Glasenberg also noted that he expected Glencore's commodity mix to start to outperform those of its peers.
"I think you are going to see quite a big divergence in their performance going forward and Glencore seems very well positioned given its exposure," said Investec fund manager Hanre Rossouw, formerly an executive at Xstrata.
