Sasol steadier after crash, but it still faces a massive crunch

Sasol’s record share plunge on Monday, coming as the oil price slumped and just days after the company credit rating was cut to junk by Moody’s Investors Service, is raising concern among investors that it may need to hold a rights offer as it struggles with a debt burden of more than R121 billion debt burden.

The fuel and chemicals producer, South Africa’s biggest company by sales, delayed an investor call scheduled for Tuesday until March 17, noting that its oil price exposure for the rest of the fiscal year is not hedged. While the company has assumed oil will stay in a range of $50 to $70 a barrel, Brent crude fell as low as $31 on Monday.

Its stock fell 47% by the close on Monday in Johannesburg. On Tuesday morning, the share recovered slightly - by early morning it was up 5% to around R89.91. The company is now valued at around R56 billion - which is still eclipsed by its debt burden. 

• READ | More than R45 billion wiped off Sasol in a single day

"If oil prices stay close to current market levels for a long period of time, Sasol may have to consider a rights issue to fund cash shortfalls," said Asief Mohamed, founder and chief investment officer at Cape Town’s Aeon Investment Management, which holds stock in the company.

Sasol’s plan to expand its business abroad with the Lake Charles Chemicals Project in Louisiana has turned sentiment against the company, with costs surging about 50% to almost $13 billion (R209 billion) and the company disclosing mismanagement in the way the operation was run. That led to the departure of its co-chief executive officers in October.

Balance sheet is key

"We will continue to keep all of our options under regular review in these challenging market conditions," said Sasol spokesman Alex Anderson, when asked if there would be a rights offer.

The company’s borrowing costs have surged. The yield on $750 million of notes due 2028 climbed for a fourth day on Monday, jumping 93 basis points to 6.61%, the highest since January 2019. The company’s net debt was R125.2 billion as of June 30, more than twice the level two years earlier.

"For Sasol the oil-price collapse means that their already fragile balance sheet will come under even more pressure," said Michele Santangelo, a money manager at Independent Securities in Johannesburg. "The longer the oil price stays suppressed, the more pressure Sasol will have to review and restructure their operations."

"This allows more time to assess the impact of these latest developments on the market and Sasol in particular," it said in a statement. "Balance-sheet protection remains a key priority."