Cape Town - South Africa may have a new finance minister soon following the replacement of its president, but whoever replaces Malusi Gigaba will still face a R50.8 billion hole in the nation’s finances.
With growth in SA lagging that of peers after a second recession in less than a decade, tax collections have dwindled. That’s intensified the difficulty faced by Gigaba at the National Treasury in striking the balance between finding more revenue and not choking off the country’s fragile recovery.
In October, his officials estimated public debt will exceed 60% of gross domestic product by 2022. The next month, the government pledged to cut spending by a further R25bn over the next three years to avert another downgrade of its rand debt to junk.
Since then, Moody’s Investors Service has warned it might deliver just such a ratings cut, and an uncosted pledge by former President Jacob Zuma for free higher education for poor students added R12.7 billion rand to the country’s financial needs.
These are the five biggest potential revenue-generating tax changes the minister may announce at the February 21 budget.
1. Value-added tax
South Africa could collect as much as R22bn if it raises the rate of value-added tax, or VAT, by 1 percentage point to 15%, PwC estimates. It would be the first change since 1993. Removing the zero rating on fuel purchases could bring in another R3bn according to Citigroup. Six of 10 respondents in a Bloomberg survey expect to see an increase in the rate.
“Being a regressive tax, it has been avoided for political reasons,” Frank Blackmore, the chief economist at EF Consult in Pretoria said. But it is a “definite possibility” given the country is running out of other revenue-generating options, he said.
2. Medical-insurance tax credits
Health Minister Aaron Motsoaledi in July released a health-insurance policy document that said he wanted to remove the tax credit to users. This is to fund the proposed National Health Insurance plan that would cover all citizens. Taking the benefit away could add almost R20bn.
3. No relief in personal-income tax
If the Treasury chooses not to adjust tax brackets to compensate for inflation, the government could reap as much as R15bn in additional revenue, Citigroup said.
4. Raising the top income-tax rate
Increasing this from 45% may bring in as much as R10bn, depending on the new rate, Citigroup says. The levy affects about 103 000 people who earn more than R1.5m annually and was raised from 41% in the year that ends in February.
While the move wouldn’t be a large revenue generator, it would send “the right signal” in one of the world’s most unequal nations, Nedbank Group chief economist Dennis Dykes said. It would show “that everyone is paying their contribution,” he said.
5. Sugar tax
One thing that the Treasury has in its favor is a tax on sugary beverages, which Zuma signed into law in December. That may add as much as R11bn rand to government coffers, Citigroup estimated.
Raising taxes on alcohol and tobacco products may add as much as R6bn, while a higher fuel levy could bring in up to R5bn, according to Citigroup. And if ailing state-owned companies don’t dip further into government guarantees, the nation will have R16bn in contingency reserves.* Sign up to Fin24's top news in your inbox: SUBSCRIBE TO FIN24 NEWSLETTER