Worldview: Making sense of shock Trump victory – “voting cattle” era over

By Alec Hogg

LONDON – It’s always easy after the event, but there were many signals telling us that pundits (and the polls) had been calling the US Presidential Election wrong.

As it turns out, the extent of Trump’s emphatic victory confirms it to have been a re-run of Brexit where commentators were also deaf to messages from the silent majority.

The clearest of them is this: voters are tired of a political establishment which has failed to understand that they know a lot more than they are credited with. They are not “voting cattle” to use a phrase popularised by firebrand EFF leader Julius Malema.

Today, information has become democratized. It is no longer the preserve of the elite. The Internet means truth is accessible to all. Just because someone lives far away from the centre of power no longer means they can be treated like mushrooms and fed the usual hot-air manure.

Politicians around the world who have failed to heed this message are being given short shrift. From Argentina to the UK, Brazil to South Africa, one vote every five years no longer permits idiotic or even corrupt rule without consequences.

In the UK, voters turned the tables on the establishment through their shock Brexit decision.

While it has been dressed up as many other things, in essence the British called a halt to the extra layer of bureaucracy which an unelected EU imposed on ordinary folk. They refused to continue being ruled by those with whom they have little in common. Or to have the cornerstone of UK sovereignty, the  judiciary, consistently over-ruled by Brussels.

Donald Trump’s historic victory in the United States reinforces this reality of a changed world political order.

A matryoshka doll showing Donald Trump, US President-elect, right, sits beside dolls representing former US presidents. (Photographer: Andrey Rudakov, Bloomberg)

In July last year, Trump was a 50/1 no-hoper, written off as a loose cannon who didn’t stand a chance of getting the Republican nomination, much less becoming President.

But he crafted a message that resonated like the blast from a vuvuzela: he siding with a middle America which believes there is something terribly wrong with the status quo. Trump told them he, as an outsider, could fix it.

The facts were on his side. Washington feeds a staggering 30 000 lobbyists, people whose sole purpose is to influence lawmakers on behalf of vested interests. That so many of them thrive shows how deeply embedded Pork Barrel politics has become in the Land of the Free.

In 2008, a young black senator from Illinois promised change at a time when the American public rebelled against another Clinton following another Bush into the White House.

His slogan of “Yes, we can” struck the right chord. Against the odds he swept past the same Hillary Clinton who lost last night, and duly dispatched Republican candidate John McCain.

But even after being re-elected four years later President Barack Obama did not deliver on his key promise of change. Now, against all its own predictions – and those of elites like the media, pundits and market participants – his Democratic party has been severely punished.

President-elect Trump will enter the White House in an incredibly powerful position including the fact that a number of re-elected Republicans in the Senate and the House of Representatives who had feared the worst, know they owe him their seats. There is little doubt many rode home on his unorthodox coat-tails.

Trump has a clear mandate to disrupt, forever, the way the US political establishment functions. Presuming he carries through on his promise, the way he does this will be noted in every democracy on earth.

Investors are sure to face an even more volatile period ahead. Markets love certainty and that is one thing the new Leader of the Free World will deny them.

There are many who benefit greatly from the status quo. As he works to change it, you should expect Trump’s enemies to throw even more mud at a man whose colourful past and politically incorrect outbursts make him an easy target.

We will also know soon enough whether outrageous statements against minorities are more than electioneering, or whether they were in reality overblown by a hostile media.

From a broader perspective, there is some upside. Like Apartheid South Africa, logic tells us the US’s existing political system was always destined to implode.

Hillary Clinton represented more of the same, promising that the can would merely be kicked down the road to be dealt with at some future indeterminate date. Trump tells us he is at the opposite end of the spectrum.

In his victory speech, he reaffirmed his commitment to invest in infrastructure, address problem areas and “make America great again.” And the way he was treated during the campaign even by many in his own party suggests, we might even believe this time the change is for real.

Investors should hold on tight. It promises to be a bumpy ride. But one that could have unexpected benefits as the penny drops among errant politicians around the world. It may well be that public service will start becoming more than an empty phrase.

As for the volatile Trump, it is worth remembering the wisdom of the late entrepreneurial genius Anton Rupert. When I asked him for guidance ahead of South Africa’s tense 1994 elections, he suggested that when a foot soldier becomes an officer, he no longer thinks like a foot soldier. Hope springs.

Together we walked in this way
Together, we soaked in the pouring rain
Now I listen to all the songs
Everything you remind me…

— Donald Trump (@donaldtrumpturk) November 9, 2016

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