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Cape Town - Adopt a long-term perspective, said Economists.co.za economist Mike Schüssler about the Western Cape Barometer for August.
The compiler of the Sake24 and BoE Private Clients' provincial barometers explained that this time around he would take a slightly different look at the figures, by comparing them with those from August three years ago.
For instance, generally no growth can be seen in the Western Cape when August 2010 is compared with August 2007.
For August the province's construction index, for example, showed 4.1% month-on-month growth, 10.8% higher than in May this year.
But when you look further back, you see that the Western Cape construction index at the end of August was still 10% below that of August 2009, and a whole 24% down on three years ago.
Schüssler said the industry nearly sidestepped the recession, but was nonetheless slightly affected later.
Between August 2009 and August 2010 house sales grew 11% - but this was still 63% down on August 2007. New vehicle sales in August were 38% less than three years ago.
All these shocking figures indicated that despite short-term growth in the Western Cape economy, in retrospect the recovery phase following the recession was still not over, explained Schüssler.
Highlights were retail sales, which were about 3.5% higher than in August 2007, and wholesale sales at 1.5% higher. Western Cape wine sales were also 24% up on three years ago. So it was clear that not all sectors found themselves in the same recession hollow, said Schüssler.
Apart from the property and vehicle markets, the economic downturn was less severe in the Western Cape than in the rest of the country. But it would seem that the province's recovery phase is also proceeding at a more gradual pace.
Technically we are out of the recession, but the economy has still not reached its former heights everywhere and in general has not yet entered a growth phase, said Schüssler.
Although there has been no general growth in the province for the past three years, there has been somewhat of a structural change, he said, especially because of large expenditure by municipalities as well as provincial and national authorities.
In the province their expenditure was 15% up on August 2009.
Although expenditure by the authorities was still showing good growth, the firm growth in expenditure of the past year was not, according to Schüssler, sustainable.
Room was therefore needed for the manufacturing industry in the province (which was 5% down in comparison with three years ago) to recover systematically.
According to Schüssler, the Western Cape remained one of the country's stronger provinces. Coastal provinces in general were doing better than those inland. Gauteng's economy, for instance, grew 3.3% in the past year compared to 6% in the Western Cape.
The Cape economy was growing steadily, but was far from the levels of three years ago.
- Sake24.com
The compiler of the Sake24 and BoE Private Clients' provincial barometers explained that this time around he would take a slightly different look at the figures, by comparing them with those from August three years ago.
For instance, generally no growth can be seen in the Western Cape when August 2010 is compared with August 2007.
For August the province's construction index, for example, showed 4.1% month-on-month growth, 10.8% higher than in May this year.
But when you look further back, you see that the Western Cape construction index at the end of August was still 10% below that of August 2009, and a whole 24% down on three years ago.
Schüssler said the industry nearly sidestepped the recession, but was nonetheless slightly affected later.
Between August 2009 and August 2010 house sales grew 11% - but this was still 63% down on August 2007. New vehicle sales in August were 38% less than three years ago.
All these shocking figures indicated that despite short-term growth in the Western Cape economy, in retrospect the recovery phase following the recession was still not over, explained Schüssler.
Highlights were retail sales, which were about 3.5% higher than in August 2007, and wholesale sales at 1.5% higher. Western Cape wine sales were also 24% up on three years ago. So it was clear that not all sectors found themselves in the same recession hollow, said Schüssler.
Apart from the property and vehicle markets, the economic downturn was less severe in the Western Cape than in the rest of the country. But it would seem that the province's recovery phase is also proceeding at a more gradual pace.
Technically we are out of the recession, but the economy has still not reached its former heights everywhere and in general has not yet entered a growth phase, said Schüssler.
Although there has been no general growth in the province for the past three years, there has been somewhat of a structural change, he said, especially because of large expenditure by municipalities as well as provincial and national authorities.
In the province their expenditure was 15% up on August 2009.
Although expenditure by the authorities was still showing good growth, the firm growth in expenditure of the past year was not, according to Schüssler, sustainable.
Room was therefore needed for the manufacturing industry in the province (which was 5% down in comparison with three years ago) to recover systematically.
According to Schüssler, the Western Cape remained one of the country's stronger provinces. Coastal provinces in general were doing better than those inland. Gauteng's economy, for instance, grew 3.3% in the past year compared to 6% in the Western Cape.
The Cape economy was growing steadily, but was far from the levels of three years ago.
- Sake24.com
