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Johannesburg - In September the Sake24 and BoE Private Clients Gauteng Barometer rose 5.3% year on year.
This was the barometer’s ninth consecutive month showing growth after contracting year-on-year for 38 months.
But the province's growth index fell 1.9% on a three-month basis. Economists.co.za economist Mike Schüssler, the compiler of the barometer, reckoned that in the third quarter of the year provincial economic growth for Gauteng would experience a slowdown.
Year-on-year growth had come off the very low base of last year, he said. If one examined statistics for the past three months, one would see sectors in decline.
The star performer for September was the commercial index, which was 8.8% up on a year ago. On a three-month basis, however, the index showed no growth.
Retail sales in Gauteng were 1.6% stronger than a year ago, boosted in particular by a 12% increase in vehicle sales. But players in the industry said job creation was essential for sustained improvement.
Since January retail sales have been up throughout the different provinces. Gauteng sales, in particular, improved, with the Western Cape following shortly behind. Sales in June and July were especially good owing to the World Cup soccer tournament.
The transport and communications index produced a 7.7% rise year on year. Schüssler said this was owing, especially, to good freight-transport numbers.
This could partly be attributed to the continuing global demand for commodities with its positive effect on the broader African market, said Vuledzani Ndou, an economist at Economists.co.za.
The communications index rose 8.6% year on year and, she said, this was owing in particular to higher internet usage than in the previous year.
While the Gauteng mining index rose 7.5% on a three-month basis, the gold industry was continuing to decline over the long term. September production in Gauteng was lower than at any time before January 2009.
The manufacturing index was 6.2% stronger than a year ago, but the 0.9% decline over the past three months had been the most of all the provinces.
The Gauteng manufacturing sector was struggling. Strikes in the vehicle and component manufacturing industry had aggravated the situation.
Add to this the 9.1% decline that the construction index showed year on year, as well as the 6.8% slump in the index for financial, property and business services, and the picture became less rosy, said Schüssler.
While things were not on a knife-edge, a rise in interest rates could be catastrophic, especially if the rand remained strong.
This was the barometer’s ninth consecutive month showing growth after contracting year-on-year for 38 months.
But the province's growth index fell 1.9% on a three-month basis. Economists.co.za economist Mike Schüssler, the compiler of the barometer, reckoned that in the third quarter of the year provincial economic growth for Gauteng would experience a slowdown.
Year-on-year growth had come off the very low base of last year, he said. If one examined statistics for the past three months, one would see sectors in decline.
The star performer for September was the commercial index, which was 8.8% up on a year ago. On a three-month basis, however, the index showed no growth.
Retail sales in Gauteng were 1.6% stronger than a year ago, boosted in particular by a 12% increase in vehicle sales. But players in the industry said job creation was essential for sustained improvement.
Since January retail sales have been up throughout the different provinces. Gauteng sales, in particular, improved, with the Western Cape following shortly behind. Sales in June and July were especially good owing to the World Cup soccer tournament.
The transport and communications index produced a 7.7% rise year on year. Schüssler said this was owing, especially, to good freight-transport numbers.
This could partly be attributed to the continuing global demand for commodities with its positive effect on the broader African market, said Vuledzani Ndou, an economist at Economists.co.za.
The communications index rose 8.6% year on year and, she said, this was owing in particular to higher internet usage than in the previous year.
While the Gauteng mining index rose 7.5% on a three-month basis, the gold industry was continuing to decline over the long term. September production in Gauteng was lower than at any time before January 2009.
The manufacturing index was 6.2% stronger than a year ago, but the 0.9% decline over the past three months had been the most of all the provinces.
The Gauteng manufacturing sector was struggling. Strikes in the vehicle and component manufacturing industry had aggravated the situation.
Add to this the 9.1% decline that the construction index showed year on year, as well as the 6.8% slump in the index for financial, property and business services, and the picture became less rosy, said Schüssler.
While things were not on a knife-edge, a rise in interest rates could be catastrophic, especially if the rand remained strong.
- Sake24
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