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'SA unlikely to hit recession'

Jul 09 2008 11:28

Johannesburg - In response to the bleak SA growth assessment yesterday by ratings agency Moody's, global analysts Lehman
Brothers say they feel it will be "rather difficult" for the country to enter a recession defined as two quarters of contraction in GDP.

They point out that this would relate to non-seasonally adjusted GDP.

Moody's came out with a pretty bleak credit assessment on Tuesday, saying that the economy would most likely be in recession this year, with growth of only 3%. It kept the ratings as they were, note the Lehman Brothers analysts.

South Africa's real gross domestic product at market prices on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised basis rose by 2.1% in the first quarter of 2008 from 5.3% in the fourth quarter of 2007.

This was the lowest growth since the third quarter of 2001, when the seasonally adjusted real GDP was 1.1%.

Non-seasonally adjusted year-on-year GDP in the first quarter,
however, was placed at 4.0% from 4.6% in the fourth quarter.

- I-Net Bridge

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Tebogo
Jul 09 2008 16:47 Report this comment

No you just dumb

kwk
Jul 09 2008 13:05 Report this comment

I agree with Oom Rian.This is a badly written article.It will be rather difficult (you bet!) for SA if it enters a recession!It certainly sounds as if they are referring to the experience of the situation, rather than the chances of it happening.The argument being pointed out, is also incoherently stated in this article.Of course it would relate to non seasonally adjusted GDP.That's one of the definitions.We readers would want to know why they argue that way. Usually the words "point out" is followed by an argument in support of the statement. I'd better get hold verbatim of what Lehman Brothers actually said, because this article does not make sense.

Anthia
Jul 09 2008 12:43 Report this comment

Ok, so let me get this right, there is an economic growth slow down, property market is in a slump, fuel prices are sky rocketing, interest rates the same, oh, yes, what about the cost of food and inflation? Consumers tightening their belts, world wide, not just in SA. US and EU economy’s are slowing, they are talking of recession, two powerful economies with the strength to absorb more of this than SA. It doesn’t take an economist nor an analyst to figure this one out, its recession time people, face it.

Arno
Jul 09 2008 12:08 Report this comment

Humph. Unlikely is Mugabe giving up the reigns, unlikely is BEE and AA being viable.

OomRian
Jul 09 2008 11:58 Report this comment

Unlikely or Difficult ??? Am I missing something or is this article heading misleading ? I read “it will be rather difficult” – meaning PAINFUL. The heading suggests it would be unlikely… Is this spin ????

Fubar
Jul 09 2008 11:47 Report this comment

So do they think you can stop the Titanic sinking with only a single 5 liter bucket? There are many reasons that SA's economy is going down and it is not largely due to the global economy but more the "questionable" government decisions and laws that are keeping capital investment at bay and trying to rape the SA population from any funds they may have!


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