Publications
Partners
MY VIEW on the proposed nuclear new build in South Africa is that the country has to get the planning right first. To this end, there should be a transparent update every year of the Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) and the Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity (IRP).
Yet we do not even have the first IEP published, despite the legal requirement since 2008 for the minister of energy to publish an IEP annually. The IRP 2010-2030 and the assumptions upon which it is based are completely out of date; the 2013 draft update has been ignored and it is now 2016.
Apparently yet another IRP update is in progress - who knows by whom or when, in a secretive manner lacking in any vestige of transparency. I am told that two Eskom specialists are working on it, which does not inspire confidence and broad-based support for the outcomes. In fact it is a recipe for dissent, conflict and legal challenge.
After a decade or two of talking, it seems the powers that be and the nuclear industry itself do not yet have a clear picture of whether nuclear is really needed, the quantum of nuclear capacity actually required, the timing of when any such nuclear new build is required, the capital cost involved, whether South Africa can afford it, how the construction will be financed, and the business model that will be used for the power plant construction and operation.
It is quite disingenuous for nuclear evangelists at the South African Nuclear Energy Corporation, the vendors and the nuclear industry in South Africa itself, with all their vested commercial interests, to suggest with such vigour that the nuclear new build is a fait accompli right now - at a time when the president and finance minister of South Africa have indicated categorically that this is not yet the case.
Frankly, in these circumstances the current planned request for proposals appears to many to be not much more than a fishing expedition. And you can see what happened in 2008 with the previous request for proposals and shortlisting of two vendors.
But somehow, some government officials and politicians, the nuclear industry in South Africa and the vendors want to put the cart before the horse, rightly fuelling widespread public and media perceptions that there is a corrupt and self-serving relationship between the nuclear industry and leaders in government.
This really does not inspire much confidence in the nuclear industry and Eskom - the designated ultimate owner/operator of the suggested nuclear new build.
I really do believe that the nuclear industry in South Africa, the economists, financiers, planners and engineers need to start talking to TO each other, instead of PAST each other while ignoring the big elephants in the room.
* Chris Yelland is the MD of EE Publishers and an energy expert.
