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IS provokes sea-change in global politics

IT WAS to be expected: the shooting down of a Russian fighter-bomber on a bombing mission near the Syrian-Turkish border has led to a flurry of sharp words and mutual reproaches between Russia and Turkey.

But it has not led to a breach in the factual coalition which is being formed against the terror movement Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq.

This is also reflected in the international economic situation and the markets, which have hardly been influenced by the tension.

Immediately after the downing of the aircraft, Turkey announced that the Russian plane had violated Turkish airspace, and that the two-man crew had been warned 10 times in five minutes to get out. President Vladimir Putin countered by saying that the bomber was well inside Syrian airspace, that it was never warned at all, and that it did not form any threat to Turkey.

He spoke of a “stab in the back”, and followed this up by saying that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was “Islamising” Turkish societyon purpose.

Strong words. Accusing another head of state almost in so many words of being a liar normally amounts to a grave deterioration in the relations between the two. Normally, all kinds of steps – varying from recalling ambassadors to economic sanctions – could be expected.

In this case, the tension lasted exactly one day. After Putin’s harsh words, and Erdogan’s equally harsh reply, the process of de-escalation began.

Russia's remarkable about-turn

It actually began with a Nato summit in Brussels, which expressed support for its member state Turkey, but at the same time called on all parties not to cross a certain line. And then Alexander Orlov, Russian ambassador in Paris, came with a remarkable about-turn in an interview with French television. He said: “We are prepared… to plan common air attacks on positions of Daesh [IS] and to establish a common general staff with France, with America, with all countries who want to be part of this coalition.”

And then he pointedly added: “The Turks are welcome if they wish.”

Where does this somersault come from?

The fact is that the interests at stake are simply far too high for the “mere” shooting down of a bomber to throw a spanner in the works.

IS made a grave mistake by defying two big powers – Russia and France – almost at the same time. Advancing in Iraq and Syria and establishing their extreme form of a caliphate was experienced as irksome in Russia (with its own relatively large Muslim population) and the West, but nobody thought that it was a clear and present danger.

The bloodbath in the offices of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in Paris in February was experienced as an assault on Western values like freedom of speech, but not as an existential danger. Besides, Russia’s conduct in the Ukraine was seen as much more dangerous.

Then IS placed a bomb in a Russian passenger aircraft carrying a full load of Russian holidaymakers from the Egyptian tourist venue of Sharm el-Sheikh to Moscow, killing everybody aboard. Russia was slow in recognising that IS was the culprit, but eventually saw the light.

And then the real game-changer came in the form of the dramatic series of attacks in Paris, killing 130 defenceless people on an ordinary Friday evening. This changed everything.

President François Hollande spoke of “war” with IS and promised pitiless vengeance, immediately followed by heavy bombing attacks by French aircraft on the IS “capital” Raqqa. The French nuclear aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle left the naval base of Toulon within a few days and is now in the eastern Mediterranean, carrying out attacks on IS positions in Syria.

The USA has stepped up its air attacks in the region. Countries like the UK and the Netherlands are actively contemplating supplementing their air operations above Iraq with attacks in Syria.

As for Russia, it had already started military operations in Syria about six weeks ago. But Putin’s strategic goal was, at first, quite different from that of the West.

He wanted to buttress the Syrian dictatorship of President Bashar al-Assad in order to keep a foothold for his country in the Middle East. Weakening IS was almost a coincidental footnote. And therefore, most of the Russian attacks were directed against Syrian rebels other than IS, including the relatively moderate groups supported by the West.

This has now changed to a certain extent. There are indications that Putin may drop Assad in the long term. But for now, IS is feeling the full fury of Russian firepower.

Turkey, too, which has its own objectives in Syria, has intensified its military operations against IS, after having turned a blind eye for a considerable time.

In other words, an informal coalition is shaping up between Russia and Nato in the war against IS. This is why the downing of a Russian bomber is not enough to wreck this process.

President Hollande is seeking a United Nations Security Council resolution sanctioning military force against IS, and perhaps also a UN force to provide the necessary boots on the ground.

A year ago, Russia and probably China too would automatically have vetoed it. Not any more.

For this sea-change in international politics, IS can blame only itself.

* Leopold Scholtz is an independent political analyst who lives in Europe. Views expressed are his own.

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