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Is population control the answer?

Cape Town - A reduction in population, possibly a one child policy, will go a long way towards solving the world and South Africa's growing economic problems.

This is the reaction of Fin24 user Grenville Moore on macro-econmic design thinker Edward Ingram's latest column A tract on financial stability.

Moore reckons quantitative easing is only putting a plaster on a wound that will not heal.

He writes:

Dear Edward, the real problem today is that populations across the world have been increasing to what is now stated as 7 billion.

However, advances in technology, have reduced the labour content for the manufacture of almost any product, even agriculture. Add to this the queue of buyers running to China and other low cost countries have decimated employment both here (in South Africa) and abroad.

Today unemployment is a worldwide problem, and this is one of the reasons why there is migration from those countries worse off. This, however, will unfortunately in the long run just spread the problem not fix it.

Right now not one of the major countries i.e. the G20, have an answer to the problem - quantitative easing is only putting a plaster on a wound that will not heal.

Scientists have quoted 4 billion people is what the earth can sustain, go above this and there will not be enough food, fresh water, sanitation, etc for everyone.

Of course no one wants to face the real solution: a reduction in population. If we got everyone to understand that for the foreseeable future, a one child policy is what we need, then this problem could be fixed.

Just consider that 50% of South Africa’s population is under the age of 15! The ANC think they have a problem now, but a serious crisis is just around the corner."

*Edward Ingram responds:

Dear Grenville,
 
Thank you for an interesting letter. It raises interesting issues which are well known.
 
But to arrive at the conclusions, whatever they may be, requires more information.
 
If I had more time I would research some of that and come back to you.
 
The main one that concerns you appears to be an increase in the world population to a level that is unsustainable.
 
It is well known that any species which grows in an exponential way as we have done usually suffers a 90% loss in some kind of catastrophe at some point. There are a number of candidates to choose from on this front but we will just have to wait and see what happens.
 
On the other hand there is the fact that the population of many nations is contracting for some reason. Germany and a number of other economically developed nations are cited. The best that I have heard to explain this is that educating children is too expensive and maybe prosperity makes people more interested in enjoying themselves. And a decline in fertility may be another factor for reasons that are being researched. Other medical research that may extend people's lifetimes almost indefinitely may be a bigger issue for population growth. So I will not attempt to foresee what may happen in the end.
 
There is a food factory in the UK that reportedly makes, from memory, 40% of some of the vegetables consumed in that country and the space taken is very little, so we cannot say that we will run out of food yet.
 
Green issues are another problem which I do not need to comment upon, but we are capable of solving that one if the resources are put in place. They may not be. We will see.
 
I have been asked to comment upon a research paper written by a senior person at the European Central bank. One of the things that is quoted is how employment levels have recovered following the various industrial revolutions that  decimated employment levels in the past. They have recovered but it is painful and takes time.
 
So I am not going to draw any conclusions.
 
For myself, I hope to make a contribution to the economic problems and show new policy options from which nations can choose. I hope this will add to the quality of life for most of the planet. And I hope that this will enable more money to be channeled into developing green solutions sooner and faster.
 
I would particularly like some research to be done into water purification using solar power. How did the clouds get so much water? Why not work that out and use the same to get water to the top of mountains?
 
And I would like someone at the top of the political process to run with my draft constitution for good governance by law. It is not enough to leave leaders with unlimited power or in a position to increase their power in that kind of way after an election.
 
If I had the kind of funds that some others can get, I would assemble organisations to tackle all of the above issues.
 
For me, time is running out. I am now 75 years old. What I can say, is that 75 years does help you to know more.
 
Best wishes, and many thanks for your thoughts,
 
Edward
 
* Edward Ingram is a leading thinker on the world stage of  macro-economic design and has written a series of essays for Fin24.

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