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WHICHEVER way you look at it, South Africa stands at a political and economic crossroads. And, a combination of political change and economic mismanagement is intersecting to precipitate this.
Local elections this week are expected to have an impact way beyond municipalities and metropolitan governance. For the first time, the ANC is vulnerable in most of the country’s major urban Metro’s.
While the governing party can still cling to power through coalitions should it fail to achieve 50% results – particularly in Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay – it is entirely feasible that Mmusi Maimane’s DA could do similar.
Although the urban decline for the ANC has been evident in previous polls, the Zuma-effect makes this election cycle more unpredictable than ever. It is this divergence between more traditional and rural ANC supporters – and their urban counterparts that reflect a dramatic change in our politics.
And, in a South Africa rapidly urbanising, the ANC is increasingly torn between two forces – keeping the traditional chiefs happy through a series of patronage-based incentives and appeal to more conservative values while at the same time, addressing the needs of modern voters more connected and exposed to disparate political influences than ever before.
For those 10 000 who Johannesburg Mayor Parks Tau says move into Gauteng every month, their expectations for jobs and security are more immediate. To paraphrase the famous quote from The Wizard of Oz, voters are ‘not in Kansas anymore’ or rather, they are not in Limpopo anymore.
The urban experience is increasingly new to many. And, for those born in the cities, the upward mobility afforded them since 1994 itself challenges the ANC. Their integration into hitherto ‘white’ group areas, their children’s integration at school and their workplace prowess catapult them into a different world.
Disruptive forces
While the ANC has tried to continue its ‘broad Church’ appeal, it’s just become tougher as demographic shifts and changing societal and political imperatives push the party into uncharted waters.
At provincial level, the ANC in Gauteng seems to have grasped this change. But the effects of Jacob Zuma and a more ‘traditional’ power clique like the ‘premier league’ conflict directly with the urbanites.
As if this is not enough to effect change, you cannot underestimate the effect of a transformed Democratic Alliance under Mmusi Maimane or a disruptive populist like Julius Malema. Both act in strange unison to exact a vice-like grip on the ANC, wringing out the centrists and populists alike.
Within the context of a controversial national leader (Zuma) who is now polarising to the extreme within his own party through the fermentation of factionalism, the ANC finds itself caught in a pincer movement of opposition that will be felt across Metro’s and local councils this week as both parties gain at the expense of the governing party.
Ultimately, a shift – albeit incremental – away from single-party dominance to a more competitive political era is now upon us. Should the ANC fail to retain control of either/or Tshwane or Nelson Mandela Bay, this shift will be hastened.
Symbolically, both Nelson Mandela Bay and Tshwane represent heartland urban constituencies for the ANC. Historically and politically, the inability of the ANC to win or form a stable coalition will unleash a period of deep reflection and recriminations.
A conflict over the ‘blame game’ for a poor electoral performance can deeply scar the ANC. Either the provincial leaders will come under pressure – or Jacob Zuma himself will be seen as largely responsible. Zuma’s longevity in office can come under pressure in the months following such a defeat as ANC office bearers begin to worry about 2019 – and their own positions of security and tenure in their respective positions.
SA changing, so too the ANC
Should the ANC scrape home with razor-thin majorities in all but the Cape Metro’s the ANC will breathe a sigh of relief, but it will not be exempt from the significant shifts and changes in our socio-economic and political make-up.
A Zuma victory would embolden the connected elites, would endanger the position of Pravin Gordhan and could plummet the country back into a Nhlanhla Nene-style milieu enough to sink the rand, foreign investor confidence and the chance of prudent policy reforms.
But, any victory for Jacob Zuma itself can exacerbate internal conflict as the country comes perilously close to a ratings downgrade and must confront the costs of widespread largesse and political cronyism and face a bleak immediate future.
So across all scenarios, South Africa is set to witness this week’s local elections have national ramifications. Whether the ANC takes a bloody nose or whether it maintains its grip, South Africa as a country has changed. And, the ANC too is changing.
The forces of internal pragmatism within the ANC will be watching the results as closely as the DA or EFF’s brains trust. They too know that this could be a watershed for change – or a catalyst for a more combustible near future in which everyone will be affected.
* Daniel Silke is director of the Political Futures Consultancy and is a noted keynote speaker and commentator. Views expressed are his own. Follow him on Twitter at @DanielSilke or visit his website.
