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Climate change gets real

“… UNCOMFORTABLY hot temperatures increase the likelihood of physical aggression and violence,” wrote Barry Levy et al in Climate Change and Public Health.

Phew. I thought that I and everyone around me were sliding into insanity, until Leonie Joubert (author of Scorched and Boiling Point, both on climate change) reminded me that mental health issues are one of the hidden consequences of what’s happening to our world.

Back in 2008, a bunch of scientists in Australia showed that mental health admissions to hospitals rise significantly during heat waves. And that’s what we’re having now in Gauteng, folks: repeated heat waves. According to the Heat Wave Duration Index, a heat wave occurs when for five days or more, the daily maximum temperature exceeds the average maximum temperature (that recorded between 1961 and 1990) by 5 °C.

I’ve got those data: for November historically Joburg saw average highs of 24.2; for December it was 25.2. You know what it’s been like; we haven’t seen many days where the temperatures have dipped below 26, have we? (Yes, I know, this heat wave is driven by an incredibly intense El Niño, so it’s not exactly climate change; on the other hand, climate change is likely driving uncomfortable changes in the El Niño phenom.)

“’It looks very likely that globally 2014, 2015 and 2016 will all be amongst the very warmest years ever recorded," Rowan Sutton of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science said.

"This is not a fluke," he said. "We are seeing the effects of energy steadily accumulating in the Earth's oceans and atmosphere, caused by greenhouse gas emissions." Pass me my fan…

People are usually comfortable between around 20 and 27; higher than that, and the occupational health experts warn against increased irritability, loss of concentration, impairment of the ability to do skilled work or mental work and other similar symptoms.

At an event held in the Origins Centre at Wits on Thursday, Professor Bob Scholes, Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, underlined why an effective, implementable deal in Paris at the COP21 climate change summit is so important: southern Africa is already heading into dangerous territory, experiencing temperature rises at around double that experienced in the rest of the world, thanks to a climate feature peculiar to this region.

If the rest of the world gets the much hoped-for two degree rise (unlikely – it’s probably going to be more like three), we’ll get around four. So that pleasant summer day in the festive season goes from 25 to 29, with spikes way into the 30s.

Fine for the people who spend their days in aircon comfort, you might think; but unless you have effective aircon at home, too, you’re likely to be tossing and turning through the long hot nights, which means less deep sleep, which means poor concentration and irritable mood the next day.

Even those who sleep in air-conditioned rooms are likely to have less than perfect health: dry skin, dry mucus membranes, and other things result.

These subtler impacts of climate change on personnel perhaps haven’t started to worry business just yet, but Scholes said that many business people have become really serious about climate change lately, as they realise they have to factor it in to long-term investments, into development plans made today, making decisions about capex and infrastructure spend and so on.

Agri-biz is especially worried, of course, and so they should be: in Climate Change: Briefings from South Africa (Wits University Press), which authors Scholes, Professor Mary Scholes and Associate Professor Mike Lucas were launching at the Origins event, there’s a chapter on agriculture.

“The interior of Southern Africa […] is mostly already above the temperature optimum. Southern Africa therefore falls into the category of regions where agriculture will be negatively affected overall”. Wheat and maize production are projected to decline, they write, while “the prospects for livestock production in the hot, arid interior of Southern Africa under climate change look bleak.” Eeurgh.

The potential impact of climate change is sinking in, for all but those in industries threatened by real action to rein it in. The proof can be seen in urgent messages from public figures like the Pope, and announcements like the Breakthrough Coalition, uniting Gates, Zuckerberg, Motsepe and other very rich businesspeople, aimed at seeking solutions to the world’s energy issues.

Many people have spent the last decade comfortably believing that climate change is something that might happen sometime far into the future, that would have no impact on how business is done in your lifetime. For those among you who have noticed how real and immediate it’s all becoming, and who want a catch-up, I’d recommend the Scholes, Scholes and Lucas book.

*Mandi Smallhorne is a versatile journalist and editor. Views expressed are her own. Follow her on twitter.


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