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LAST Sunday, a record total of 13 000 asylum seekers, mostly from Syria, entered Germany.
In the first six months of the year, 180 000 refugees crossed the country’s borders. And the government expects the total for this year to rise to as high as 800 000.
Make no mistake: this is a crisis, much bigger than the Greek crisis, even bigger than the Ukrainian crisis. It is possible that these last two may yet escalate to dwarf the refugee crisis, but that will not be easy.
What Europe is experiencing now is a mass migration which will have profound consequences for this part of the world.
And with South Africa having gone through a similar process – albeit on a smaller scale – we might do well to look seriously at what is happening in Europe.
The refugee problem suddenly received a human face with the publication of a photo of drowned three-year-old Kurdish toddler Aylan Kurbani, lying face down on a Turkish beach. He was part of the enormous wave of people fleeing countries like Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Eritrea and so on to the streets of Europe, reportedly lined with gold and where life is easy and prosperous.
Yes, among the genuine refugees there are many chancers, especially from the Balkan states, who use the opportunity to slip in and seek a better life without actually fleeing for their lives. Those from countries ravaged by civil war and terrorism often have little choice.
In addition, many more are eking out a poor existence in barren refugee camps in the region itself. Turkey is housing an estimated 2 million refugees from Syria, while Lebanon and Jordan also took in several hundreds of thousands. On the other hand, Muslim countries in the Persian Gulf and Saudi Arabia have resolutely closed their borders to their fellow believers.
The way Europe is being engulfed by a deluge of refugees is eliciting a furious debate in many countries. In Germany there have been several instances of right-wing extremists setting fire to refugee holding centres. When Chancellor Angela Merkel visited one such place in the eastern town of Heidenau, she was greeted by demonstrators with slogans like “Traitor to your people” and “Stupid slut”.
Merkel herself budgeted €10bn for emergency aid to the refugees. In a press conference she referred to the country’s Nazi past, and said that this time around Germans could be proud of their country doing the right thing. European Commission vice-chairperson Frans Timmermans spoke of “the hour of truth” for Europe.
In France, right-wing Front National leader Marine le Pen taunted the Germans, saying they simply want to import new slave labour into their country. Some right-wing mayors said only Christian refugees should be permitted to stay.
Generating more heat than light
The situation is, understandably, generating more heat than light. But, even when trying to see the light rationally, differences remain.
On the one hand people point to the fact that Europe, especially Germany, is literally a dying continent. The Baby Boomers born just after World War II are now reaching pensionable age, and the fertile younger generation’s multiplying power is way too low.
If nothing happens, the German population is set to decrease by several million in the next 20 years or so. Worse still, since 2004 the shortage of skilled workers rose by 20%.
With many refugees being either well educated or highly trained, German employers are already rubbing their hands with glee. Some have started making plans to recruit refugees to fill up the vacancies in their companies. German Vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel says Germany will be able to accommodate half a million refugees a year for several years.
On the other hand, a respected moderate veteran political commentator, Theo Sommer (a former editor and publisher of liberal weekly Die Zeit) has warned that these initiatives, well-meaning as they are, do not look at the longer-term picture.
Last week he wrote: “Of course, we don’t have any choice but to help those who flee to us. But even that may cause use to over-exert ourselves.... At some stage we will have to discuss how many (migrants) we want to take up, or can take up and integrate. We cannot refuse them all, but we cannot let everybody in.”
Nevertheless, there are two hard facts on the ground. One: the vast majority of refugees already in Europe are here to stay, and they will change the continent’s cultural and ethnic character at least to some extent.
Secondly, as long as the problems in the Middle East remain unsolved, the deluge of refugees will continue. To try and keep them out is akin to sweeping the sea back with a broom.
* Leopold Scholtz is an independent political analyst who lives in Europe. Views expressed are his own.
