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High end leads property cycle

Nov 11 2009 16:58

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Johannesburg - The higher-priced residential areas appear to be keeping their status as the leader in the property cycle, FNB said on Wednesday.

According to the bank the sequence still appeared to be holding, suggesting that the higher-priced end will enter into rising average price inflation first.

It is possible that the Top 10% of areas were less affected by the economic slowdown, as one finds more accumulated savings and wealth among higher-income households to cushion the blow in recessionary times, whereas areas lower down the price ladder are often characterised by households with low savings, causing greater financial stress in bad times.

The FNB Property Barometer survey has consistently pointed towards a greater percentage of "selling in order to downscale due to financial pressure" in low income areas as opposed to higher up the ladder.

On top of this the tightening up of banks with regard to lending criteria in 2008 possible hampered middle and lower end demand, often a haven for first-time buyers, to a greater extent due to a lack of ability to put down deposits for home loans in many cases.

The converse holds true, though, in that the recent relaxing of credit criteria should benefit these segments more than the top 10%, and so with a lag, one should expect the more affordable side of the market to follow the higher priced end upward.

- I-Net Bridge

 
 
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