Johannesburg - South Africa's central bank is likely to keep interest rate steady next week.
Twenty-three of 26 economists polled by Reuters this week see the Reserve Bank leaving the repo rate at 7 percent, with three holding out for a 50 basis points cut, which would be the first since August last year.
But the door is not closed on more monetary policy easing, with another three analysts predicting a half percentage point drop during the first half of the year, particularly given the still weak state of household finances.
Consumers are suffering under relatively high debt and the almost 1 million job losses suffered during last year's recession have heaped pressure on the demand side of the economy, threatening to slow recovery from a global downturn.
The vast majority of economists forecast the rate cutting cycle, that saw the repo fall 5 percentage points between December 2008 and August, to be over. Rates should stay on hold for some time, rising again towards the end of 2010 or in 2011.
Fifteen economists see the repo rate at its current level or at 6.5 percent - a near three decade low - at the end of 2010. Five, though, are expecting the bank rate to end the year a percentage point higher at 8 percent.
Repo held at 7%
This is the most likely outcome of the two-day meeting, as little has changed since the central bank last met in November.
Consumer inflation is just inside the top end of the 3 to 6 percent target range, but base effects are expected to briefly push it back outside the band before settling down again. The central bank has forecast the targeted gauge sustainably inside the range by the second quarter.
December's print is only due on Wednesday so the market will not know at the time of the decision whether it has surprised on the downside. Expected big increases in power prices are a major risk to the outlook.
Given policymakers have not given any signs to the market of a possible change in thinking, they are unlikely to surprise with a change.
Retail sales remain weak and credit demand is falling, pointing to the dire state of household finances, but the manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery.
The central bank may want to wait for the impact of previous rate cuts to filter through, which should ease the plight of consumers over time.
Repo cut to 6.5%
There is a low probability of the seven-member committee resuming cutting rates next week, given weak retail sales and negative credit demand growth.
Another rate cut will take the bank rate to its lowest level in nearly three decades and could help to accelerate the economic recovery.
Credit demand fell for the second consecutive month in November and retail sales dropped a more-than-expected 6.6 percent year-on-year.
Consumer demand was the main driver of faster growth in the four years until 2007 and a protracted period of weakness will hold the economy back, extending a property slump.
Market reaction
A no-change decision is largely priced in, so reaction should be muted if the policy committee leaves the repo flat.
A surprise rate cut will boost money markets, sending government bonds and FRA yields lower, although the move may not be too large with the cut likely to be the last before rates start rising again.
A rate cut could also see a knee-jerk reaction on the currency, pushing it a few cents weaker against the dollar, although the positive impact on growth from lower rates could see it pare losses later.
- Reuters