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Risk aversion threat for bonds

Jan 08 2009 09:19

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Johannesburg - Bonds were on the back foot in early trade on Thursday as heightened risk aversion set in globally and led to a weaker rand feeding through to upset bond sentiment.

By 08:40 the short-term government R153 bond was at 7.550% from its previous close of 7.510%. The medium-term R157 was at 7.680% from a previous 7.540%, while the long-term R186 was bid at 7.665% from 7.565%.

The rand was last at R9.6775 to the dollar from a previous close of R9.6320.

"We are looking resilient, but there is the risk of a sharp kick up [weaker] with the 7.750% level a possibility," said a senior bond dealer.

He pinpointed the risk aversion globally as a key concern, as evidenced by the poorer Asian markets after the Dow fell last night.

"The rand is under quite a bit of pressure," he added.

Dow Jones Newswires reports US stock futures are slightly lower on Thursday, after markets fell on Wednesday on the earnings concerns.

"We got away from the euphoric bear market rally and it's back to basics," the trader said. For a definitive turnaround in the market, "we need to see a change in the fundamentals before you can put some conviction behind the move."

Asian share markets were taking their cue on Thursday from a sharp fall on Wall Street, as concerns were reignited about the outlook for corporate earnings and the health of the broader US economy.

"The negative cues from the US will likely shift investors' focus to worsening fundamentals from expectations of economic stimulus policies," said Park Suk-hyun, an analyst at Eugene Investment & Securities in Korea. "A sharp fall in oil prices also indicates a dissipation of risk appetite."

Resource stocks were pulling back as commodity prices faltered recently, while technology stocks were hit as Intel shares fell 6.1% in the US after the chip giant cut its revenue outlook and said it expected a 23% fall in fourth-quarter sales.

Foreigners were net sellers of R4.233bn worth of bonds on Wednesday after net sales of R971.349m worth of local bonds on Tuesday, Bond Exchange of South Africa statistics show.

Nominal cumulative volume was R37.949bn on Wednesday from R66.065bn on Tuesday.

- I-Net Bridge

 
 
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